832
FXUS63 KPAH 101220
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
620 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING TO SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. SOME MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THIS AREA.
- VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS
AND 20S ARE FORECAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY AND
VETERANS DAY (TUESDAY).
- A MAJOR WARMUP WILL BRING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH THE NEXT CHANCE
OF WIDESPREAD RAIN FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 620 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE BOOKENDED BY TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS,
WITH GENERALLY MILD AND DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN. THE FIRST SYSTEM
WILL BE OF THE WINTER VARIETY AND WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW SHOWERS TO SOUTHWEST IN AND NORTHWEST KY. THIS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH QUICK-MOVING COMPACT MID-LEVEL LOW WITH
PROPERTIES NOT UNLIKE THAT OF A BOWLING BALL WHICH WILL MOVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS IN INTO KY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK
OUT AS THIS FEATURE PASSES.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UPWARD WITH QPF TO SHOW A FEW
HUNDRETHS IN SW IN/NW KY, RESULTING IN NEW SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION VALUES OF A TRACE TO ABOUT 0.8". THE AREAS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ACCUMULATIONS APPROACHING 1" ARE PIKE,
GIBSON, AND WARRICK COUNTY, INDIANA, AS WELL AS LOCATIONS
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE GROUND BEING WARM, EXPECT THE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL
MELT QUICKLY. HOWEVER, CONCERN IS THERE FOR ISOLATED IMPACTS ON
ELEVATED ROAD SURFACES AND BRIDGES. ADDITIONALLY, WIND GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL, SO REDUCED VISIBILITY IS ALSO A
CONCERN. HAVE HOISTED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM 12-17Z
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST IN AND HENDERSON AND DAVIESS COUNTY IN NW
KY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION AND SKIES CLEAR.
THE OTHER STORY TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE THE VERY CHILL AIR
MASS IN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND TUESDAY
MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S, WITH WIND CHILLS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AS WELL, ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.
AS H5 HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BIG WARMUP IS
FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE H5 RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE AREA, BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S.
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH PASS
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS
WELL DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
A QUICK-DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO SOUTHWEST IN AND
NORTHWEST KY THIS MORNING, IMPACTING EVV AND OWB. BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, HAVE TRENDED MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR VSBY
AND CIG IMPACTS DURING THE 12-17Z WINDOW, INTRODUCING PERIODS OF
IFR AND LIFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND IFR/MVFR CIGS. THE SNOW AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA BY 18Z, WITH CLEARING
SKIES FOLLOWING ACROSS THE AREA BY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
FROM THE NW AT 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS FROM MID-
MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 4-7 KTS FROM THE W-NW TONIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
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