001
FXUS63 KPAH 110715
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
115 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TODAY, BUT
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES.
- FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND.
- OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, THE
NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
AFTER A CHILLY START WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY AT TIMES, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
AS THE DEEP CANADIAN TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST, H5
HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE REGION TRANSITIONS INTO NORTHWEST BAROCLINIC
FLOW. BY FRIDAY, THE TROUGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. IN FACT, THE CURRENT
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD VALUES.
A WEAK PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY.
SOME ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE (LIKE THE GEFS) STILL BRINGS A SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY, BUT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS
TRENDED MUCH SLOWER BREAKING DOWN THE H5 RIDGING. THIS WOULD
KEEP THE REGION DRY UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. THE NBM
INITIALIZATION HAS CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD (NOT
ATYPICAL BEHAVIOR), BUT IT IS PROBABLE THAT TIMES WITH DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AS
THE TIMING COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ON
SATELLITE HIGH CIRRUS IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
WINDS HAVE GONE MOSTLY CALM AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NIGHT AND
WILL PICK BACK UP TOMORROW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20-25 KTS. LLWS IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD
FROM ABOUT 23Z TILL ABOUT 06Z AT ALL THE TERMINALS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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