745
FXUS63 KPAH 122022
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
222 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A MAJOR WARMUP WILL BRING A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY APPROACHING RECORD VALUES.
- OTHER THAN SMALL LOCALIZED RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY MORNING AND
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT IN WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WILL SHIFT OFF
TO THE EAST, WITH A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, WITH FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE QUAD
STATE WITH AN ISOLATED 70 POSSIBLE IN THE OZARKS. ONE LAST
CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IS FORECAST BEFORE THE LATE
WEEK WARMUP. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR DURING THE EVENING, WHICH
WILL HELP WITH POTENTIAL AURORA VIEWING (CONSULT THE SPACE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE INFO ON THAT).
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW, THOUGH ELEVATED MOISTURE COULD
BRING IN CLOUDS, KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. A
SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY, WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY
MORNING. H5 HEIGHTS PEAK IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S, WHICH MIGHT APPROACH A RECORD
HIGH OR TWO (GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 THIS TIME OF
YEAR). A SYSTEM MOVING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES
TRAILS A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS BECOME
BREEZY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
AND ACCOMPANYING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MODELS INDICATE A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK BUT BEGIN DIVERGING ON DETAILS. A
SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY BRINGS MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY WEEK. MODEL
SPREAD INCREASES BY A MIDWEEK SYSTEM, AND THE
25TH-75TH/10TH-90TH PERCENTILE SPREADS BECOME UNWIELDY. TUESDAY,
FOR EXAMPLE, HAS A 30 DEGREE SPREAD (47 TO 77) IN PADUCAH'S
NBM 10TH-90TH PERCENTILE HIGH TEMPERATURE. FOR NOW, THE
FORECAST STICKS NEAR THE MIDDLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. A LOT OF
THE TEMPERATURE DISPARITY WILL DEPEND ON PRE-FRONTAL VS POST-
FRONTAL TIMING. FURTHER OUT, RIDGING IN THE EAST AND TROUGHING
TO THE WEST LEANS TOWARDS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
SOME VSBY DECREASES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH WESTERLY WINDS TODAY BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT. HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE IN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL
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