017
FXUS63 KPAH 122315
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
515 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A MAJOR WARMUP WILL BRING A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY APPROACHING RECORD VALUES.
- OTHER THAN SMALL LOCALIZED RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY MORNING AND
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT IN WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WILL SHIFT OFF
TO THE EAST, WITH A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, WITH FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE QUAD
STATE WITH AN ISOLATED 70 POSSIBLE IN THE OZARKS. ONE LAST
CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IS FORECAST BEFORE THE LATE
WEEK WARMUP. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR DURING THE EVENING, WHICH
WILL HELP WITH POTENTIAL AURORA VIEWING (CONSULT THE SPACE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE INFO ON THAT).
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW, THOUGH ELEVATED MOISTURE COULD
BRING IN CLOUDS, KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. A
SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY, WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY
MORNING. H5 HEIGHTS PEAK IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S, WHICH MIGHT APPROACH A RECORD
HIGH OR TWO (GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 THIS TIME OF
YEAR). A SYSTEM MOVING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES
TRAILS A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS BECOME
BREEZY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
AND ACCOMPANYING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MODELS INDICATE A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK BUT BEGIN DIVERGING ON DETAILS. A
SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY BRINGS MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY WEEK. MODEL
SPREAD INCREASES BY A MIDWEEK SYSTEM, AND THE
25TH-75TH/10TH-90TH PERCENTILE SPREADS BECOME UNWIELDY. TUESDAY,
FOR EXAMPLE, HAS A 30 DEGREE SPREAD (47 TO 77) IN PADUCAH'S
NBM 10TH-90TH PERCENTILE HIGH TEMPERATURE. FOR NOW, THE
FORECAST STICKS NEAR THE MIDDLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. A LOT OF
THE TEMPERATURE DISPARITY WILL DEPEND ON PRE-FRONTAL VS POST-
FRONTAL TIMING. FURTHER OUT, RIDGING IN THE EAST AND TROUGHING
TO THE WEST LEANS TOWARDS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 511 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE MAY
BE SOME VERY SLIGHT VSBY REDUCTIONS OVER WEST KY NEAR MORNING
(NOT AFFECTING THE TERMINALS AND STILL VFR). WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT TO MAINLY CALM OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOMORROW. SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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