814
FXUS63 KPAH 131146
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
546 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
- COOLER, BUT STILL NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
- SMALL CHANCES OF SPRINKLES OR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF WEST
KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY EVENING.
- MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST WILL BRING A RETURN
OF SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY, PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND TODAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LOWS BY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLOSE TO WHAT OUR NORMAL HIGHS
SHOULD BE. WITH THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, THE MODEL
BLEND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SMALL CHANCES OF SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT
SHOWER EAST OF INTERSTATE 69 FRIDAY MORNING, AND LIGHT SHOWERS IN
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND MOST OF WEST KENTUCKY SATURDAY EVENING.
ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
THE CHANCES SATURDAY EVENING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE PAH
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING, SHIFTING WIND TO THE NORTHWEST.
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN
TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AS WE GET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION. MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND THE FRONT, SO THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE BEST
CHANCES OF SHOWERS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODEL BLEND CURRENTLY PRODUCES THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
MONDAY EVENING NEAR THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS OUR REGION, BUT MORE FORECAST
ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY. IN ANY CASE, OUR REGION WILL SEE A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
AFTER BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AT KCGI UNTIL 13Z, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN200
CLOUDS AND NO VSBYS RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING, BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT
3-6KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST
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