308
FXUS63 KPAH 140524
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1124 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S.
- SMALL CHANCES OF SPRINKLES OR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY IN THE WABASH RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
- THE NEXT DECENT SHOT OF MEASURABLE RAIN LOOKS TO ARRIVE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY IMPACT OUR REGION DURING THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TIMING CURRENTLY CENTERED ON
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL (POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING 2") IS INCREASING FOR THIS EVENT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
WEAK WAVE AROUND 850MB WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS, AND MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST GUIDANCE REALLY
STRUGGLES TO GENERATE MUCH, IF ANY, MEASURABLE QPF. LOOKS LIKE THE
AREA NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANYTHING,
PRIMARILY DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY, WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST WIND HELPING
TO BOOST HIGHS INTO THE 70S. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LIKELY WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER, AND COULD FLIRT CLOSE TO RECORDS IN A FEW
LOCATIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. VERY LIMITED,
IF ANY, MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH IT THOUGH. THE
MAIN ENERGY STAYS WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. COULD HAVE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND SATURDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT THOUGH. NORTHERLY
FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEK. WHILE IT'S POSSIBLE SOME
MEASURABLE RAIN COULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, THE MOST
LIKELY TIMING OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OVERALL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME, BUT A FEW AREAS COULD SEE 0.25" TO 0.50".
THERE IS A GROWING SIGNAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO IMPACT
OUR AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH
LOOKS TO EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTH INTO
OUR AREA AHEAD OF IT. THE NBM PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 2" HAVE
INCREASED TO 40-60%. SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL AT 5". WHILE THERE REMAINS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
VARIABILITY IN AMOUNTS AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST AXIS ENDS UP, THE
OVERALL TREND IS CERTAINLY INCREASING FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT.
FAR LESS CERTAIN ON THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED FOR STRONGER STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
THE PASSAGE OF A DISTURBANCE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 8 AND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE TO 3-5 KNOTS TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...AD
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