877
FXUS63 KPAH 141139
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
539 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
AND LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE PENNYRILE REGION SATURDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY
A COOL DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING BACK CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST WILL PRODUCE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP, WITH HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY IN THE
70S, AND LOWS TONIGHT ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
50S.
ON SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE PAH FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.
MODELS TAKE THE FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION SATURDAY EVENING, AND A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE PENNYRILE REGION.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE READINGS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTING A
WARM FRONT INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY, NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD
ARE GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH RANGE.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF CHANCES OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BY MID TO LATE WEEK, A
STRONGER AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS STILL IN QUESTION, BUT LATEST FORECAST TOTALS SHOW
AT LEAST 3 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME. TIMING AND AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE TUNED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCT-
BKN060-080 THROUGH 18Z, AND SCT HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 18Z. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AT 6-12KTS AFTER
15Z. INCLUDED LLWS AT 09Z PRIOR TO SURFACE WINDS INCREASING AND
BECOMING GUSTY. WINDS WILL PREVENT ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST
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