511
FXUS63 KPAH 290444
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1044 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY WITH THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
AREAS NEAR INTERSTATE 64 SATURDAY WHERE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. ISOLATED TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MIXING OF SLEET.
- CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT IS SET TO BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE QUAD STATE
REGION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGING IS PARKED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 30S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BEGINNING
TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST.
TROUGHING ALOFT WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WITH AN UPSHEAR JET MAX LEADING TO AMPLIFICATION OF THIS
TROUGH. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING LIFTING INTO MISSOURI BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
LIFT A NW/SE ORIENTED WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST. CAMS AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE REFLECTIVITY FOOTPRINT AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. INITIAL PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL START OUT AS SNOW
ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE WAA RAMPING UP. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING THE DRY AIRMASS ERODING WITH WETBULB COOLING BEING
EVIDENT IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS. TOP/DOWN SATURATION OF
THE COLUMN WILL LIKELY OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY GIVEN THE FORCING
ALOFT.
MODEL PLANVIEWS AND CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL REGIONS OF MAXIMIZED
OMEGA WITHIN THE DGZ CO-LOCATED WHERE SOME OF THE CAMS DEVELOP
HEAVIER REFLECTIVITY RESULTING IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE
SNOW. WHILE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS,
SOME OF THESE HEAVIER RATES MAY BRIEFLY OVERCOME THOSE MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES AND LEAD TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLUSHY ROADS ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR AND POTENTIALLY INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
THE FORECAST FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.
AN AREA ALONG I-64 STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING UP TO 2
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF THIS AREA. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL GO INTO
EFFECT SATURDAY MORNING FROM JEFFERSON COUNTY IL EAST TO WABASH
COUNTY.
EVENTUALLY, THE WARM NOSE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND BEGIN
A P-TYPE TRANSITION. THERE MAY BE A SHORT WINDOW OF SLEET BEFORE
A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE RAIN AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HELP IMPROVE ANY ROAD ISSUES BY THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE COLD WITH AREAS
NEAR I-64 REMAINING NEAR FREEZING, AND MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER AND CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING WEST OF
THE MS RIVER TO MID TO UPPER 30'S EAST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
TOWARD THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TROUGHING
DEVELOPS TO THE WEST RESULTING IN A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
GULF COAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
WINTRY PRECIPITATION DOES SEEM TO BE LIKELY GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL BE A SYSTEM TO
WATCH IN CASE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH SNOW
AND/OR A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING OUT
BY TUESDAY MORNING. BEYOND THIS SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM
SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO START LOWERING (THOUGH STILL VFR)
OVERNIGHT. A SYSTEM IS COMING THROUGH THAT WILL BRING PRECIP TO
CGI AND MVN STARTING A LITTLE LATER THAN EXPECTED AROUND
14-18Z, EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW AT MVN AND POSSIBLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT CGI. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MOVE
EAST (DUE TO A POCKET OF DRY AIR) WITH THE PRECIP AND SO HAVE
USED PROB30S AT PAH, EVV, AND OWB FOR POTENTIAL ONSET TIMING.
PRECIP AT ONSET WILL LIKELY BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW AND
POSSIBLY EVEN ICE PELLETS. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY STILL
AROUND THESE PRECIP TYPES AND ONSET TIMING FURTHER EAST. CIGS
WILL LOWER GRADUALLY WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP AT ANY TERMINAL,
VSBYS WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED (MORE SO WITH SNOW THAN WITH RAIN).
EXPECT A TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AROUND THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ILZ075>078.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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