941
FXUS63 KPAH 292056
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
256 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING, THE THREAT OF IMPACTFUL
WINTER WEATHER TODAY HAS ENDED. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
- CHILLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, AND CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND/OR FREEZING RAIN TO MOST OR
ALL OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (MAINLY RAIN) RETURNING
TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
AS STRONG WAA CONTINUES, ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS HAS BROUGHT THE RISK OF IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER
TODAY TO AN END, AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JEFFERSON,
WAYNE, EDWARDS, AND WABASH COUNTY IN SOUTHERN IL HAS BEEN
CANCELED. WITH EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR, ROBUST WET-BULB
COOLING HAS BEEN OBSERVED, RESULTING IN BOTH A DELAY IN THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND AN INITIAL BURST OF SLEET MIXING
WITH THE RAIN.
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST,
ENDING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN MOST LOCATIONS. AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, THE REST OF THE DAY
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND CHILLY. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S, FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S WITH PLENTIFUL CLOUDS ALONG
I-64 TO UPPER 30S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG THE MO/AR AND
KY/TN BORDERS. MONDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, OUR NEXT POTENTIALLY
IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE. THE EVENT WILL
BE DRIVEN BY RELATIVE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
ORGANIZE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND ORGANIZE AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND MID/DEEP
SOUTH. THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE
OF SUB- FREEZING AIR TEMPERATURES THAT WILL ALLOW FOR THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE MAINLY FROZEN.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THE MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA WILL SEE
SOME MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM A WINTRY MIX. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION WE WILL SEE AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. SOME MODELS
LIKE THE NAM ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.50-0.75",
RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF HAS TRENDED IN A COLDER/DRIER DIRECTION. THE NBM
INITIALIZATION REMAINS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF, BRINGING
ABOUT 0.25-0.50" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THESE VALUES TREND DOWNWARD WITH LATER UPDATES.
PRECIPITATION TYPES REMAIN A BIG QUESTION. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
REGION BEING UNDER THE LEFT-ENTRANCE REGION OF AN H3 JET FOR
MOST OF THE EVENT, RESULTING IN BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE. IN FACT, THE ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PROFILES MORE SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SLEET PELLETS
MORE THAN ANYTHING. THE WARMER/WETTER MODELS WOULD SUPPORT
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND SLEET TOTALS 1-3" AND PERHAPS A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST SHOWS ABOUT 0.5-1.5"
OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICING
ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
KENTUCKY.
EITHER OUTCOME, SAVE FOR A COMPLETELY SUPPRESSED AND DRY
SYSTEM, WOULD BRING TRAVEL IMPACTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. PLANNING TO CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THE MESSAGING, AND
DEPENDING ON CONFIDENCE, WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE ISSUED
SOMETIME ON SUNDAY.
BEYOND TUESDAY, CHILLY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 30S OR LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.
THE SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. THIS
COULD START AS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA, WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD, ALLOWING
THE LAST OF ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND MVN TO CHANGE OVER
THE JUST RAIN. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT, BRINGING LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR
LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR AT CGI AND PAH AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME S TO SW THROUGH THIS EVENING,
SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS. WINDS WILL VEER
TO DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS TO THE W TO NW AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES BECOMING SUSTAINED AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20S.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
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