539
FXUS63 KPAH 040717
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
117 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE COLDEST AIR THIS SNAP IS ONGOING, AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIDE INTO AND THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
FINALLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
- LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS
REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
MORE LOW CLOUDS ARE ON THE WAY AS OUR REINFORCING COLD SHOT
MAKES ITS MOSTLY DRY PASSAGE. WHILE SOME LIGHT ECHOES THAT SHOW
UP ON LONG PULSE RADAR MODE MIGHT PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW FLAKE OR
FLURRY ALONG/NORTH OF I-64 AS THE NOSE OF THE AIR MASS ARRIVES
THIS MORNING, AMOUNTS AND CHANCES ARE NEGLIGIBLE. ANOTHER SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT PCPN OCCURS THIS EVENING, WHEN A SURGE OF
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE THAT IS LARGELY TO OUR SOUTH CLIPS OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES/CWA BORDER AREA. WHILE A FLURRY CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AND THE BUILDER PRODUCES A HINT OF -FZRA, AMOUNTS
RANGE FROM T-0.01" AND CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING ARE LESS THAN
30 PERCENT.
ANOTHER UPPER TROF MAKES PASSAGE THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN OVER ITS BACK HALF. WE'RE MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THIS WINDOW OF TIME, SO IT'S ALL LIQUID SAVE
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. AMOUNTS ARE
NEGLIGIBLY LIGHT AND POPS REMAIN SCANT, WITH THE SYSTEM'S MAIN
IMPACT BEING ANOTHER PUNCH OF COLD AIR THAT KEEPS TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL RIGHT ON THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
FINALLY SOME MODERATION OCCURS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST IN THE WAKE OF THAT DEPARTED SYSTEM,
AND RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLIES DEVELOP. 40S AND 20S ARE FOLLOWED
BY 50S AND 30S OR CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
INCOMING LOW END MVFR BASES MAY AT TIMES DIP INTO IFR AS MORE
RESTRICTED CIGS ACCOMPANY THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A MOSTLY
DRY COLD FRONT. PIREPS AND TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A
VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE ABOUT 1500 FT AGL TO ABOUT 10K FT AGL, BUT
CIGS HOLD THRU THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AS CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS AOB 10 MB EXIST IN THE MOIST LAYERS ABOVE AND
BELOW THOSE THRESHOLD HEIGHTS. EXPECT THE KEY FEATURE OF THE
PASSAGE BEING NORTH WINDS PICKING UP AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTING
CLOSE TO 20 KTS AS THE PRESSURE FLUX OCCURS UPON FROPA.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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