488
FNUS73 KPAH 160054
FWSPAH
SPOT FORECAST FOR VANCE BARNETT RX...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
654 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1800 CST ON DECEMBER 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
THERE WILL BE A VERY STRONG AND LOW-LEVEL INVERSION, WHICH WILL
SEVERELY LIMIT MIXING DEPTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MIXING HEIGHTS
ARE NOT LIKELY TO REACH 1700' AGL TUESDAY, BUT MAY REACH NEAR
2000' AGL WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION, THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
THAT WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND MAY LINGER AT LEAST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS, AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE CURRENT
FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE A HANDLE ON THE LOW CLOUDS, SO THAT COULD
FURTHER LIMIT HEATING AND RESULT IN HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN
THE AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY WILL NOT HAVE THE CLOUD CONCERN, BUT
THERE WILL BE HIGHER HUMIDITY. DESPITE DECENT SOUTH WINDS, SMOKE
DISPERSION WILL BE POOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THIS EVENING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........35 AT IGNITION...MIN 26.
RH..................35 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MAX 78 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WINDS SOUTH AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /4800 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MIN...POOR
/3500 KNOT-FT/.
TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY COVER.......MCR MCR PC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............35 31 30 29 28 29 29 29 27 27 27 27
RH..............35 41 42 46 50 51 53 55 63 63 65 68
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SW SW SW S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..5 3 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1
20 FT WIND GUST.10 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 3 5 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 8 7 8
VRATE KT-FT/1K..5 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 4 4 4 4
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 50.
RH..................MIN 49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4400 KNOT-FT).
TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......MC MC MC MC MC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............27 27 28 33 40 43 48 49 50 50 47 45
RH..............71 78 78 69 57 55 49 52 50 50 53 58
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 2 3 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 6
20 FT WIND GUST.6 5 7 9 12 13 14 15 16 16 17 16
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.1 1.0 0.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 8 8 12 13 15 17 17 16 14 12
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 5 5 6 13 17 23 29 32 29 13 8
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
TUESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 32.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
AROUND 8 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3400 KNOT-FT).
TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY COVER.......PC PC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC PC
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............42 40 38 38 38 37 36 35 34 34 33 33
RH..............65 70 79 79 79 82 85 89 92 96 100 100
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1
20 FT WIND GUST.16 16 15 13 12 12 10 9 8 7 6 6
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 12 12 12 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8
VRATE KT-FT/1K..6 7 6 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 57.
RH..................MIN 59 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 12
TO 13 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3400 KNOT-FT).
TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......PC PC PC MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC PC
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............33 33 35 38 43 48 53 56 57 57 55 51
RH..............100 100 100 100 89 77 66 62 59 59 64 71
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 12 12 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.4 1.9 1.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W SW SW SW S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 12 13 13
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 3 4 5 8 11 15 19 23 24 20 13
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
FORECASTER...SPAETH
REQUESTED BY...KRYSTEN BAUER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2527665.1/PAH
.DELDT 12/15/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL ANDREW_DOCKINS@NPS.GOV,KRYSTEN_BAUER@NPS.GOV
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