265
FNUS73 KPAH 161858
FWSPAH
SPOT FORECAST FOR VANCE BARNETT RX...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1258 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CST ON DECEMBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, KEEPING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
PLACE AT THE BURN SITE. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
LIFT NORTHWARD WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES ON WEDNESDAY THAN WERE
OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
LESS AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY; HOWEVER, A
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO GUST
CLOSER TO 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN
POOR UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........46 AT IGNITION...MAX 57.
RH..................73 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 59 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 1 MPH AT
IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2600 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /5500 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MAX...POOR
/28300 KNOT-FT/.
TIME (CST) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............46 51 54 56 57 56 55 52
RH..............73 66 61 57 57 62 66 74
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..1 2 3 3 5 5 5 3
20 FT WIND GUST.5 6 7 7 9 9 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.0 1.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 7 9 10 12 13 14 14
VRATE KT-FT/1K..6 10 16 22 27 28 23 15
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 AM.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 44.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS. GUSTS UP TO 22 MPH OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 AM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 14 TO 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (6600 KNOT-FT).
TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY COVER.......PC PC MC MC CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............49 48 46 45 48 48 48 49 50 51 51 52
RH..............77 89 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..5 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 6
20 FT WIND GUST.12 15 16 16 17 17 18 20 20 21 21 22
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 14 14 14 15 15 16 17 18 18 18 17
VRATE KT-FT/1K..8 7 8 9 9 10 11 13 16 18 18 17
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................66 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 57.
RH..................MIN 49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH
EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST
6 TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (16400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (88200 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......CDY CDY CDY CDY MC MC MC MC PC MCR MCR MCR
WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............70 70 70 70 70 70 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............52 53 53 54 54 55 55 55 54 53 51 48
RH..............100 100 100 100 100 96 90 77 66 57 52 51
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SW W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.22 22 23 23 23 23 23 24 24 25 25 24
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.3 3.1 3.8 4.2 3.8 3.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SW SW SW W NW NW NW NW NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.17 16 16 16 17 18 20 22 23 24 24 23
VRATE KT-FT/1K..17 16 17 19 23 30 40 57 77 88 78 60
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR GD GD GD FR
FORECASTER...COOLEY
REQUESTED BY...KRYSTEN BAUER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2527665.3/PAH
.DELDT 12/16/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL ANDREW_DOCKINS@NPS.GOV,KRYSTEN_BAUER@NPS.GOV
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