799
FXUS63 KPAH 210840
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
240 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY BEHIND A DRY COLD
FRONT.
- THE CHRISTMAS WEEK WARMUP ENSUES THEREAFTER, REACHING THE 60S
BY TUESDAY, WHICH CARRIES ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEK.
- THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY, WITH SMALLER CHANCES OF RAIN BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FLOWING INTO THE QUAD STATE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS
ARE MOVING THROUGH, AND NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE, WHICH WILL
LIMIT SOME OF THE COOLING POTENTIAL. EARLY MORNING LOWS HAVE
BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY UPWARD TO GENERALLY NEAR FREEZING. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH TODAY, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY, AND
MAINTAINING COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.
AS HIGH PRESSURES SHIFTS TO THE EAST, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN
A STRONG WARMING TREND EARLY WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY. GULF MOISTURE FLOWS
NORTHWARD NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI, WITH AFTERNOON RAIN POSSIBLE.
RAIN CHANCES BECOME WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT, CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY IN THE EAST. QPF TOTALS REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND
THUNDERSTORMS AREN'T EXPECTED, EVEN IN NEIGHBORING AREAS TO THE
SOUTH. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WILL HELP CLEAR OUT
MOST OF THE POPS HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, WITH
THE PEAK PROJECTED TO BE CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. A TOP 2-5 WARMEST CHRISTMAS SEEMS LIKELY
(RECORD HIGHS FROM 2021 WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH), BUT
CHRISTMAS LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO EVEN UPPER 50S WOULD
SHATTER SOME WARM MINIMUM RECORDS. LOW END POPS MIDWEEK IN THE
NORTHEAST ARE CONNECTED TO SMALL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AREA.
A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND, ONCE AGAIN, MIGHT PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT, ALONG WITH WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE, WILL LEAD TO A COMPARATIVELY COOLER WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SATELLITE SHOWING SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A
LOWER CLOUD DECK MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE HIGH CIRRUS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND WILL TURN NORTHERLY BY
MIDNIGHT. WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 5-10 KTS TOMORROW AND WILL
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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