465
FXUS63 KPAH 221742
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1142 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A COOL EARLY MORNING TODAY, THE WARM UP IS ON WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CHRISTMAS
DAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAYS, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES!
- LOTS OF CLOUD COVER WITH GOOD CHANCES OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
RAIN ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
LESSER CHANCE OF RAIN IS FORECAST NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
A STRONG SURFACE INVERSION EARLY THIS MORNING AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR
FREEZING. BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH AS A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SHIFTING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY WITH STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION
RAMPING UP EARLY WEEK TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS MOVE OVERHEAD,
KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MONDAY. MODELS AGREE ON
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN BY EVENING, WITH SPOTTIER INCLUSION
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS MOISTURE NEEDS TIME TO RAMP UP.
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE ARE MORE LIKELY TO ONLY HAVE
DRIZZLE EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY WESTERN KENTUCKY,
OFF AND ON DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TUESDAY. QPF
IS MINIMAL IN ALL MODELS EARLY WEEK. A BOUNDARY INTRUSION INTO
THE QUAD STATE WILL GIVE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD THIS BOUNDARY MOVE IN SOONER, TUESDAY
HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MID-50S IN THE NORTH. ELSEWHERE,
TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TUESDAY.
BROAD RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN WITH A LOCAL PEAK AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH CHRISTMAS EVE, WITH THE LAST
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY. CONTINUED WARMING
MAY INTRODUCE A FEW 70S TO SEMO CHRISTMAS EVE. THE ENTIRE QUAD
STATE IS LIKELY TO SEE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S CHRISTMAS DAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS ARE LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF 2021
RECORDS, BUT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WOULD SMASH CHRISTMAS
DAY WARM MINIMUM RECORDS IF THEY VERIFY.
A GREAT LAKES SYSTEM FRIDAY IS LIKELY TO STAY NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, THOUGH SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING PRECIP TO THE
EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE, SO ADJUSTMENTS ARE POSSIBLE MOVING
FORWARD. ANOTHER DAY OF UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S CONTINUES FRIDAY.
A SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS AND ANGLING TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DRIVES SOUTHWARD BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
END OF WEEKEND COOLDOWN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z HREF HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF IFR
OR LOWER CEILINGS, WHILE MUCH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE
SLOW TO GET ON BOARD. DECIDED TO RUN WITH THE HREF LEVELS. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, AND THEN CONTINUE TO LOWER AS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO FALL. THE WORST CONDITIONS, IFR OR
POSSIBLY LIFR, ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. SOME
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. KMVN
WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOWERED CONDITIONS, BUT
COULD STILL SEE A PERIOD OF IFR STRADDLING 06Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...DRS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page