973
FXUS63 KPAH 222308
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
508 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE CHRISTMAS WARM UP IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE QUAD STATE.
CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD STILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS,
WITH SOME LOCATIONS CLIMBING INTO 70S. SOME DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD FALL, AND RECORD NIGHTTIME WARMTH
IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
- PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, AND POSSIBLY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE EVANSVILLE TRI
STATE.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE WARMTH THIS
WEEKEND, MOST LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MUCH COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
THE CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION, AND LOWER
CLOUDS ARE SURGING NORTH INTO THE QUAD STATE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE EVEN SOME DRIZZLY-LOOKING ECHOES ON KPAH.
EVERYTHING IS ON TRACK FOR OUR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE EVENT TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT, AND SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY DRIZZLE CHANCE TO WEST
KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY. THAT BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
EVANSVILLE TRI STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE DRIZZLE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS STILL
THE MAIN UNKNOWN, BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SOUTHWEST
INDIANA AND WEST KENTUCKY WILL BE WET FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
LIKEWISE, AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL BE DRY. QPF THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS STILL A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER, INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL ADVECT
WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE QUAD STATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WE USED THE NBM HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO
HARDWIRE THOSE TRENDS. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY
DICTATE WHICH DAY WILL BE THE WARMEST ACROSS THE REGION. THE NBM
HAS LOWER 70S OVER THE OZARK FOOTHILLS WEDNESDAY, THEN OVER MOST
OF THE REGION CHRISTMAS DAY, BUT FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY AREAWIDE AND PROVIDES THE BEST CHANCE TO SNAG A FEW
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS. THE RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO FALL AT ALL CLIMATE SITES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
IT WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PASS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
BY NEXT MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHICH IS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ALONG IT IS STILL QUITE VARIED
IN THE GUIDANCE, BUT WE DO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOME GUIDANCE IS GENERATING
200-400J/KG OF MUCAPE, SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
LOW MVFR CEILINGS ARE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING A
DETERIORATION TO IFR THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY LIFR IN THE SOUTH
AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNDER A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION. THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE LEAD TO
AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT
OPENING UP DURING THE DAY TO LOW MVFR. THE RULE SHOULD GENERALLY
BE THE CLOSER TO THE KY/TN AR/MO BORDER YOU GET THE LOWER THE
CIG.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...JGG
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