161
FXUS63 KPAH 230902
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
302 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE CHRISTMAS WARM UP IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE QUAD STATE.
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAYS,
WITH SOME LOCATIONS CLIMBING INTO 70S MULTIPLE DAYS. SOME
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD FALL, AND RECORD
NIGHTTIME WARMTH IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
- PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, AND POSSIBLY THROUGH FRIDAY IN PORTIONS OF THE
EVANSVILLE TRI STATE.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE WARMTH THIS
WEEKEND, MOST LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER AIR EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION HAS LIFTED TEMPERATURES TO THE
50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE QUAD STATE, WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS AS
THE SURFACE LAYER IS LARGELY SATURATED. POCKETS OF DRIZZLE ARE
FALLING, AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY. SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DIP TO THE
40S IN LOCATIONS LIKE MOUNT VERNON, IL. DRIZZLE LARGELY GETS
CONFINED TO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SEMO TODAY (THE LATTER HAS
TRENDED HIGHER FOR POPS TODAY IN THE CAMS). WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY, HIGHS WILL EASILY BE IN THE 60S.
A BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH MUCH OF THE QUAD STATE AIDING IN
SUPPRESSING NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP, THEN REVERSES AND MOVES
NORTH WEDNESDAY. THROUGHOUT ALL THIS, QPF IS TRIVIAL AND, AT
THE MOST, WE MERELY SEE A TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE TO LIGHT RAIN
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE.
A VERY BROAD SYNOPTIC RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER, HEADING INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SHOWER
CHANCES HAVE TICKED UPWARDS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS
DAY, MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST, AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST. A STRONGER SYSTEM FOLLOWS FRIDAY, AGAIN
YIELDING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST. MODELS ARE
INCREASING CONVERGING ON A LONGER DURATION RESURGENCE IN THE
RIDGE AFTERWARDS, ALLOWING FOR POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD 70S FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY AND ALSO SATURDAY, WHICH WILL PROBABLY SET SEVERAL
RECORD HIGHS AND WARM MINIMUMS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE QUAD STATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY, SHARPLY LOWERING TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY NEAR FREEZING. THERE'S SOME
VARIATION IN TIMING AND STRENGTH IN GUIDANCE, WHICH RESULTS IN A
BIT OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
CEILINGS ARE HOLDING BETWEEN ABOUT 800 AND OCCASIONALLY UP TO
1700 FT MOSTLY AROUND 1200 FT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AS WELL. I THINK
CIGS HOLD ABOVE 500 FT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME MODELS THAT WANT
TO TAKE THINGS DOWN BELOW 500 IN THE 3-6 AM TIMEFRAME.
LOW MVFR/GRUNGY LOW CLOUD CONDITIONS SEEM LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AND INTO EARLY EVENING AS MOISTURE POURS
IN BELOW A SHARP TEMPERATURE INVERSION.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...JGG
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