793
FXUS63 KPAH 231749
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1149 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE CHRISTMAS WARM UP IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE QUAD STATE.
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAYS,
WITH SOME LOCATIONS CLIMBING INTO 70S MULTIPLE DAYS. SOME
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD FALL, AND RECORD
NIGHTTIME WARMTH IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
- PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, AND POSSIBLY THROUGH FRIDAY IN PORTIONS OF THE
EVANSVILLE TRI STATE.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE WARMTH THIS
WEEKEND, MOST LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER AIR EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION HAS LIFTED TEMPERATURES TO THE
50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE QUAD STATE, WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS AS
THE SURFACE LAYER IS LARGELY SATURATED. POCKETS OF DRIZZLE ARE
FALLING, AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY. SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DIP TO THE
40S IN LOCATIONS LIKE MOUNT VERNON, IL. DRIZZLE LARGELY GETS
CONFINED TO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SEMO TODAY (THE LATTER HAS
TRENDED HIGHER FOR POPS TODAY IN THE CAMS). WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY, HIGHS WILL EASILY BE IN THE 60S.
A BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH MUCH OF THE QUAD STATE AIDING IN
SUPPRESSING NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP, THEN REVERSES AND MOVES
NORTH WEDNESDAY. THROUGHOUT ALL THIS, QPF IS TRIVIAL AND, AT
THE MOST, WE MERELY SEE A TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE TO LIGHT RAIN
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE.
A VERY BROAD SYNOPTIC RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER, HEADING INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SHOWER
CHANCES HAVE TICKED UPWARDS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS
DAY, MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST, AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST. A STRONGER SYSTEM FOLLOWS FRIDAY, AGAIN
YIELDING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST. MODELS ARE
INCREASING CONVERGING ON A LONGER DURATION RESURGENCE IN THE
RIDGE AFTERWARDS, ALLOWING FOR POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD 70S FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY AND ALSO SATURDAY, WHICH WILL PROBABLY SET SEVERAL
RECORD HIGHS AND WARM MINIMUMS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE QUAD STATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY, SHARPLY LOWERING TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY NEAR FREEZING. THERE'S SOME
VARIATION IN TIMING AND STRENGTH IN GUIDANCE, WHICH RESULTS IN A
BIT OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST TODAY WITH DIVERGING SOLUTIONS POSSIBLE
BY THIS EVENING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/DRIZZLE/SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON AND MAY EXPAND
NORTH AND WEST TO IMPACT MOST OF THE TAF SITES. WE COULD GO VFR
THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
DROP AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING WITH A COMBINATION OF
FOG, DRIZZLE, AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPACT KCGI AND KPAH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...DRS
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