086
FXUS63 KPAH 240535
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1135 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE CHRISTMAS WARM UP IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE QUAD STATE.
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAYS,
WITH SOME LOCATIONS CLIMBING INTO 70S MULTIPLE DAYS. SOME
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD FALL, AND RECORD
NIGHTTIME WARMTH IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
- PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE THE RULE FOR MOST OF THE QUAD STATE AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, AND POSSIBLY THROUGH FRIDAY IN PORTIONS OF THE
EVANSVILLE TRI STATE.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE WARMTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
THE NEXT ROUND OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN IS BLOOMING OVER WEST
KENTUCKY AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION, AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA, FOCUSING
THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN A ZONE ROUGHLY FROM CAPE GIRARDEAU TO
HOPKINSVILLE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, BUT IT WILL REDEVELOP NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN BRING CHANCES OF MORE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. QPF THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS, BUT PORTIONS OF WEST KENTUCKY COULD
SEE A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS TONIGHT, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED QUARTER INCH REPORTS.
HAVING 60+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA IN
DECEMBER IS VERY CONCERNING, ESPECIALLY WITH A SEMI-PERMANENT
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, THE INVERSION
REMAINS STOUT AND SHOULD PREVENT ANY CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING
THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE
QUAD STATE TODAY PURELY FROM ADVECTION, BUT SIGNIFICANT SUNSHINE
WILL BE HARD TO FIND UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD THROUGH FRIDAY,
WHEN THE ENTIRE AREA MAY REACH THE LOWER 70S, IF NOT HIGHER.
THE LOW 70S SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, AS WELL. SEVERAL
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SET ACROSS THE
QUAD STATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND MORE MAY FALL EACH DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. CHRISTMAS DAY APPEARS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST RECORDS, BUT
OTHERWISE, RECORDS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. RECORD MAX MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL IN THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND
THROUGHOUT THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THERE IS STILL A LOT TO SETTLE OUT FOR THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS WARM, HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE POWERFUL FRONT AND UPPER STORM SYSTEM, IT
CERTAINLY IS WORTH WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEALTHY
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, MOST GUIDANCE IS
DEVELOPING MOST OF THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT, AND THE NBM HAS DROPPED ALL MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST. THIS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE AND WE WILL KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR ANY MORE CONCERNING POSSIBILITIES.
IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY. WIND CHILLS
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT, BUT ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 5 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO.
AS THE MODELS LOCK ONTO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, WIND CHILLS
COULD TREND CLOSER TO ZERO, IF NOT BELOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE COLD GROUND HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT TO ALL TERMINALS, MUCH MORE THAN ANY MODEL
GUIDANCE ANTICIPATED. THIS HAS MADE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING ALONG I-64, EXPECT
THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THEN NIGHT WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z. MVFR AND IFR LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON, WITH CONDITIONS LIFTING TO MVFR OR VFR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
WINDS WILL CALM OVERNIGHT, THEN PICK UP FROM THE SE AROUND 4-8
KTS, BECOMING S TO SW WEDNESDAY EVENING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
111.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST /10 AM EST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ004-005-007-
008-010-011-013>016-018>021.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DWS
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