233
FXUS63 KPAH 240928
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
328 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NUMEROUS HIGH AND WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN THIS WEEK, AS SOME LOCATIONS CLIMB INTO THE 70S
MULTIPLE DAYS, WITH CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE
WARMEST.
- PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE THE RULE FOR MOST OF THE QUAD STATE AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, AND POSSIBLY THROUGH FRIDAY IN PORTIONS OF THE
EVANSVILLE TRI STATE.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE WARMTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS COVER MUCH OF THE QUAD STATE AT THIS TIME
WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS NOW IN A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID-MORNING. FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE WHICH WERE MORE RECENTLY ADDED AND
HAVEN'T HAD FOG DEVELOPMENT YET, THE DESI HREF ENSEMBLES SHOW A
SHIFT SOUTHWARD IN FOG POSITIONING THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTH AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT IN THOSE
AREAS. SOUTHEAST MISSOURI (ESPECIALLY THE OZARKS) SHOWS THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AND MODELS HAD
UNDERESTIMATED FOG POTENTIAL DURING THE EVENING. DRIZZLE
ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING ON RADAR AT THIS TIME, BUT SPOTTY
OCCURRENCES REMAIN. A LOT OF AREAS WILL BE DAMP JUST FROM ALL
THE SURFACE MOISTURE PULLING FROM A COLD (BUT WARMING) GROUND.
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS JUST NORTH OF THE MO/AR AND KY/TN BORDERS
WILL REVERSE AND LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY STRONG
AGREEMENT ON A NW TO SE LINE OF MORE FAVORABLE DRIZZLE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THAT FRONT. LINGERING FOG AND LOW CLOUD
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD BE LESS OF AN
ISSUE COMPARED TO PRESENT CONDITIONS. WITH THE LIFTING FRONT,
WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION RESUMES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S TODAY. A COUPLE MORE RECORDS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY, WITH CAPE GIRARDEAU'S RECORD HIGH FROM 2023 THE MOST
LIKELY TO BE BROKEN.
THE UPPER-RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
CHRISTMAS DAY INTO FRIDAY, LEADING TO EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES.
A SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OHIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY,
WHILE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE MIDWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. FOLLOWING THE
FRIDAY SYSTEM, A SECONDARY PEAK IN THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY, CONTINUING THE SPAN OF RECORD WARMTH. CHRISTMAS DAY
TENDS TO BE AMONG THE MOST DIFFICULT RECORD HIGHS TO REACH THIS
WEEK SO RECORD HIGH POTENTIAL IS MORE LIKELY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WHILE RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
AREAWIDE CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY.
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE LATER FOR THE WEEKEND COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH THE NBM NOW FAVORING SUNDAY MORNING RATHER THAN
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE FRONT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE
TIMING AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL (WHILE THE NBM LEAVES OUT
THUNDER FOR NOW, SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT WHICH IS ENOUGH TO ENABLE
SOME STRONGER STORMS). WE, FOR SURE, WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY TO TICK UP AS WE MOVE CLOSER AND TIMING
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BEHIND THE WEEKEND FRONT. A BRIEF
SWITCHOVER TO SNOW IN THE TRAILING STRATIFORM IS POSSIBLE,
THOUGH WARM SURFACES WON'T ALLOW ANY ACCUMULATION. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE QUAD STATE MONDAY,
AND LINGERING BREEZY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT CAN LOWER WIND CHILLS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS, POSSIBLY EVEN DOWN TO
0. WHILE THE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY WEEK, IT
WILL PROGRESS, RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND LOCALLY THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE COLD GROUND HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT TO ALL TERMINALS, MUCH MORE THAN ANY MODEL
GUIDANCE ANTICIPATED. THIS HAS MADE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING ALONG I-64, EXPECT
THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THEN NIGHT WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z. MVFR AND IFR LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON, WITH CONDITIONS LIFTING TO MVFR OR VFR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
WINDS WILL CALM OVERNIGHT, THEN PICK UP FROM THE SE AROUND 4-8
KTS, BECOMING S TO SW WEDNESDAY EVENING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST /10 AM EST/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...DWS
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