550
FXUS63 KPAH 081137
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
537 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONDITIONAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
LOW, BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE (5% OR LESS) FOR SPORADIC DAMAGING
WINDS GUSTS AND A TORNADO EXISTS.
- AFTER A LULL ON FRIDAY, ADDITIONAL RAIN IS FORECAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY.
- MUCH COLDER AIR FUNNELS INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD ARE
FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT, WHEN THERE IS ROUGHLY A 75-90% CHANCE
OF TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 20S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NORTH INTO OUR REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST AR AS OF 2 AM. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A
CONTINUED NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS DENSE FOG INTO PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA, SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO RESIDE WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY
RESULTING IN A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT TRANSLATES NORTHEAST FROM
KANSAS INTO WISCONSIN BY THIS EVENING. AS IS COMMON DURING THE COOL
SEASON, THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS EXCEPTIONAL WITH 850MB WINDS OF 60-
65 KTS AND 500MB WINDS OF 80-85 KTS. SRH VALUES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH,
WITH 0-1KM OVER 300 M2/S2. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, GLANCING AT THE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP
AMONGST OTHER HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-700 J/KG
MAY BE REALIZED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS EVENING, AND MAY
SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR WEST KENTUCKY
BEFORE WEAKENING TOWARDS 06Z AND AFTER. THERE ARE HINTS IN SOUNDINGS
THAT A CAPPING INVERSION COULD KEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY ELEVATED
THOUGH. ALSO NOTICED THAT THE BETTER INSTABILITY TENDS TO LAG BEHIND
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE. HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THERE CERTAINLY
IS A CAUSE FOR CONCERN GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PARAMETERS IN
PLAY. JUST A LITTLE EXTRA LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD LEAD TO
STORMS BECOMING SURFACE BASED ALLOWING SPORADIC POCKETS OF DAMAGING
WINDS GUSTS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES.
THE TIMING FOR SEVERE STORMS IS BETWEEN 00-09Z FRIDAY, WITH SLIGHTER
HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO AND MAYBE INTO SOUTHWEST IL. AS
THE CONVECTION SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST IN AND MUCH OF WEST KY
THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE DWINDLING RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT LOWER
THREAT. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK FOR MUCH OF OUR
REGION. HAVE NOTICED THAT SEVERAL CAMS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST WITH
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN, WHICH MAKES SOME
SENSE AS THIS REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID LEVEL
JET THAT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, DESPITE THIS
SEVERAL CAMS STILL GENERATE SOME FORM OF BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS AND
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ACROSS OUR CWA.
BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE, A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR AREA AND HAS IT
SOUTHEAST OF US FRIDAY NIGHT. SO WHILE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS WEST KY, THE SEVERE THREAT LIKELY WILL
STAY SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 DEGREES TODAY. WE REMAIN RATHER MILD UNTIL THE SECONDARY TROUGH
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WITH SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES RETURNING
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. MIGHT EVEN BE A STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE
FREEZING FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. NEXT WEEK
LOOKS LIKE A BACK AND FORTH BATTLE WITH TEMPERATURES, SO AFTER A
BRIEF MODERATION ON TUESDAY IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT ANOTHER BURST OF
COLDER AIR WILL IMPACT OUR REGION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS IS A
RESULT OF ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CANADA AND REINFORCING THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH
THIS MORNING, WITH THE FOG PRIMARILY CONFINED TO KPAH/KCGI AND
SURROUNDING AREAS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS ANTICIPATED BY
SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF VSBY REDUCTIONS AND
POSSIBLY A RETURN OF IFR CIGS TO TERMINALS. CONDITIONS FINALLY
START TO IMPROVE FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD BECOME VERY
GUSTY IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE EVENING WHEN 25-30KT GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ILZ088>094.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MOZ086-087-
100-107>112-114.
IN...NONE.
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ001>013.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
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