083
FXUS63 KPAH 090544
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1144 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING, INCLUDES A LOW
BUT NON-ZERO (5% OR LESS) CHANCE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR
POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
- SPC HAS ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG-POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORMS LINGERING FRIDAY, BUT THE MAIN RISK WILL BE TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST.
- TURNING COLDER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK; THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
60F DEW POINTS HAVE ENTERED THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FA. THE
WAA GAME IS STRONG, AND IT NEEDS TO BE, BECAUSE TIME/HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST CONTINUED CLOUD COVER INHIBITING THE
TEMPERATURE CLIMB. THIS WILL RETARD THE ALREADY COMPROMISED
INSTABILITY/PARCEL BUOYANCY FORECAST, WITH MUCAPE MODELED TO
PEAK SOMEWHERE IN THE 200-400 JOULES RANGE OVER SEMO THIS
EVENING, A SLIGHT DOWNTICK FROM EARLIER MODELING. IT'LL BE A
SHORT SLIVER OF TIME BETWEEN 00-06Z THAT EXISTS IN COINCIDENCE
WITH THE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRON FOR OUR SEVERE WX POTENTIAL...WE'LL
SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT AS THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH THE PARALLEL
ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR FIELD WRT CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPMENT.
NEVERTHELESS, H8 WINDS TO 60+KTS WON'T TAKE MUCH TO DRAW DOWN,
OFFERING "SEVERE" SHOWER POTENTIAL EVEN FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, EXPECT GRADIENT WINDS TO CRANK UP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING TOO, SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT BREEZY
NONETHELESS.
SOME 12Z DATA SUGGESTS THE FRIDAY CHANCE IS OVERDONE, AND
CHANCES INCLUDING SEVERE STORM CHANCES SHOULD WASH AFTER FROPA
LATE TONIGHT-EARLY FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS WE REMAIN IN A MARGINAL
RISK IN OUR SOUTH/EAST, AT LEAST UNTIL THE BLENDED/ENSEMBLE
MODELING CATCHES UP. AFTER THE SYSTEM FINALLY SWEEPS THRU IN
ENTIRETY, WE'LL SEE 1/2 TO MAYBE 1 INCH TOTALS IN GENERAL SO
THIS WILL LIKELY NOT BE CAUSING ANY BROADER FLOODING ISSUES.
MUCH COLDER AIR IS BROUGHT IN THIS WEEKEND AND EXTENDS INTO
NEXT WEEK, MORE LIKE WHAT JANUARY USUALLY FEELS LIKE. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUNDAY, WHEN HIGHS STRUGGLE
INTO/THRU THE 30S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
SEVERAL BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT,
ENDING BY 12Z IN OUR EAST. CIGS WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND LOW
VFR OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING IN OUR
NORTHERN TERMINALS INTO THE MORNING. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MAKES PASSAGE,
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER NEAR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WINDS BECOME WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY SLACKEN THROUGH THE
DAY, EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BY LATER AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TOMORROW NIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST /4 AM EST/ FRIDAY FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...SP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page