176
FXUS63 KPAH 091022
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
422 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW,
WITH EVEN COLDER AIR SET TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
- LINGERING SHOWERS WILL EXIT WEST KENTUCKY THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- AFTER BRIEF MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
ROUGHLY A 60-80% CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING HIGH TEMPERATURES
BELOW 40 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
A 991MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. WIND
FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG, WHICH
HAVE HELPED BOOST TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE LEVELS TO UNSEASONABLY
HIGH LEVELS. IN FACT, THE TEMPERATURE IN PADUCAH WAS 69 DEGREES
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH IS THE WARMEST SUCH TEMPERATURE FOR
THIS TIME OF DAY IN THE MONTH OF JANUARY IN AT LEAST 40+ YEARS!
SEVERAL BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PIVOTING EASTWARD AT THE MOMENT. INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER,
BUT JUST ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A FEW OCCASIONAL UPTICKS IN INTENSITY OF
THE CONVECTION. SOME SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A
BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT, UNTIL
THE CONVECTION FINALLY CLEARS OUR EAST BY AROUND 12Z OR SO.
WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY TODAY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THEREFORE, MOST LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE HIGHS EARLY WITH DROPPING OR NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING, IT'LL BE DRY THE REST OF THE DAY.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX WILL LEAD TO RAIN DEVELOPING
AS A SHORTWAVE PIVOTS EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL RESIDE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS WAVE, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS WEST
KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH AS IT DOES SO. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS REMAINS NORTHEAST OF US, ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.
AFTER RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER
60S, IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME
HOURS TODAY. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 20S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHTS.
A BRIEF BOUT OF RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MODERATION BACK INTO THE
50S BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THIS IS SHORT-LIVED AS ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA WILL INDUCE LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT AMPLIFIES ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ENSEMBLES
TEND TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL REINFORCEMENT OF THIS TROUGH INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS WELL, SO LOOKS LIKE WE MAY BE DONE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
FOR AWHILE NOW. WHILE SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE SOME SMALLER SNOW CHANCES
FOR US, NOTHING EYE-POPPING IS JUMPING OUT AT US JUST YET.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL EXIT WEST KENTUCKY SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.
MVFR CIGS ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS MAY SNEAK INTO NORTHERN
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BASES WILL LIFT
TO LOW VFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN AND LOSE THEIR GUSTINESS
THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGS IN
A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS, WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY AT KPAH/KOWB.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
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