554
FXUS63 KPAH 101121
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
521 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER WAVE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY,
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT IN AREAS THAT ACTUALLY
RECEIVE RAIN.
- MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARRIVE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
- ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND
LIKELY CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXIST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, BUT OVERALL LOOKS
FAIRLY DRY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
CURRENT RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS A SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THAT WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA, PRIMARILY WEST KY. MEANWHILE THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST WILL PIVOT EASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY, RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN BEING POSSIBLE ACROSS OTHER
PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. FINALLY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS,
A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE THERMAL PROFILE MAY
SUPPORT SOME CHANGEOVER TO A FEW SNOWFLAKES WITH SOME OF THIS
BEFORE ENDING.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
PRIMARY TROUGH PIVOTS EAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MODERATION IS
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY DESPITE NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN
PLACE. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OF CANADA ON TUESDAY
WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER BOUT OF COLDER AIR SURGING SOUTH
INTO OUR CWA. ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LIKELY WILL BE PRIMARILY
RAIN, BUT COULD MIX WITH SOME SNOW BEFORE ENDING AS COLDER AIR
FUNNELS IN. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH IT THOUGH.
WHILE A SLIGHTER WARMER PERIOD MAY OCCUR NEXT FRIDAY, MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING IN THAT WILL REINFORCE THE
TROUGHING ACROSS OUR REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT, TEMPERATURES
MAY BE EVEN COLDER YET AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ROUGHLY A 40-
60% CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING NEXT SUNDAY
(JAN 18TH). OVERALL TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FAIRLY DRY
PERIOD AS WELL, ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHTER PRECIP CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION LATER THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY, BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY
WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KTS LIKELY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING, WE LIKELY SEE AN UPTICK OVERNIGHT
AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME GUSTS IN NORTHERN TERMINALS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
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