610
FXUS63 KPAH 131148
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
548 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMTH RETURNS TODAY WITH A NEAR CERTAINTY THAT THE ENTIRE
QUAD STATE REGION WILL REACH AT LEAST 55 DEGREES. OVER THE
OZARK FOOTHILLS, THERE IS A NEAR CERTAINTY OF REACHING AT
LEAST 60 DEGREES.
- THE LONE CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK IS TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, GENERALLY IN THE 9 PM TO 9 AM TIME
FRAME. CHANCES RANGE FROM 30% ALONG I-64 TO 70% OVER WEST
KENTUCKY. 0.1"-0.2" OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE BOOTHEEL
AND WEST KENTUCKY, WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED
FARTHER NORTH.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
A NEAR CERTAINTY THAT THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE REGION WILL SEE AT
LEAST 20KT (23 MPH) GUSTS EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY, WITH
THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE (20-50%)
FOR 40 MPH GUSTS WILL BE ON FRIDAY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
- AN INITIAL SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, AND THEN REINFORCEMENTS ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A NEAR CERTAINTY THAT THE EVANSVILLE TRI
STATE WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WIND CHILLS SUNDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO
5 ABOVE ZERO FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026TO
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND COVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY
EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL
SMALLER POCKETS OF ENERGY WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT THE TROUGH AND
BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR TO THE QUAD STATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AHEAD OF THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BRING A NICE WARM UP TO THE QUAD STATE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 20-30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY
BELOW 40 MPH WHICH IS WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS NBM FORECAST SEEMS A LITTLE LOW ON THE
POPS WITH ENSEMBLES INDICATING A NEAR CERTAINTY OF AT LEAST
0.01" THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE. IN GENERAL, EXPECT THE RAIN TO
BE A BIT MORE HIT AND MISS LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION AND THEN FILL IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE REGION WITH THE MOST RAINFALL OVER THE BOOTHEEL AND WEST
KENTUCKY. THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 0.10" OR
MORE WILL FALL OVER THE BOOTHEEL AND WEST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER,
0.25" WOULD BE STRETCH EVEN ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLD AIR TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE
STEADY OR FALL DURING THE DAY, AND BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR 10
DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A CALM AND COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. AS THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK IN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BECOME WESTERLY FRIDAY. THE
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DECENT CHANCE OF APPROACHING 40 MPH GUSTS
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY.
IN COMPARISON TO THE MOST RECENT ENSEMBLES, THE NBM ONCE AGAIN
SEEMS TOO LOW WITH POPS AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE ENSEMBLES INDICATE SOME CHANCE POSSIBLY
AS FAR WEST AS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WHILE THE NBM HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ONLY OVER THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE. ANY
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WOULD BE SNOW.
ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT THERE IS NO
CHANCE OF THE TRI STATE REACHING THE FREEZING MARK OVER THE
WEEKEND, AND AT LEAST A 50% OF THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE STAYING
BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND
THE COLD AIR WILL BRING WIND CHILLS NEAR COLD ADVISORY LEVELS
SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE NBM HAS -4 NEAR MVN AND +5 NEAR FT
CAMPBELL. IT WILL ONLY IMPROVE A FEW DEGREES FOR MONDAY MORNING.
AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS OF
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART THE NBM KEEPS THE AREA DRY. THE
CHANCE OF IMPACTFUL SNOW IS NEAR ZERO, BUT PORTIONS OF THE AREA
COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME SNOW FALLING AT TIMES. A FINAL IMPULSE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MORE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
AFTER TUESDAY IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER PATTERN FINALLY RELAXES
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MODEST WARMING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
20-25KTS COMMON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEFORE THE GUSTINESS
BEGINS, LLWS COULD BE A CONCERN. LIKEWISE, AFTER THE GUSTINESS
SUBSIDES THIS EVENING, LLWS CONCERNS WILL RETURN. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF IT A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION MAINLY
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE IMPACT,
THE HREF INDICATES THAT THERE IS AN 80% CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS
REACHING ALL THREE NORTHERN SITES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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