452
FXUS63 KPAH 140818
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
218 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AS LIGHT RAIN EXITS THE REGION THIS MORNING, IT WILL BECOME
QUITE BLUSTERY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-30 MPH WILL RESULT
IN FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL FEEL
MUCH COOLER AT THE END OF THE DAY THAN IT WILL THIS MORNING.
- BY SUNRISE THURSDAY THERE IS A 90% OR BETTER CHANCE OF WIND
CHILLS DROPPING TO 10 DEGREES OR BELOW OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
- THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
EVANSVILLE TRI STATE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 64. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK, SO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRI STATE LATER
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- IT WILL BE VERY COLD THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
90% OR GREATER CHANCE OF THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE REMAINING
BELOW FREEZING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WIND CHILLS SUNDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM JUST BELOW
ZERO IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED AND IS STEADILY
PUSHING SOUTHEAST. ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN, THERE HAS
BEEN A TENDENCY FOR NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST 25-30KTS BRIEFLY.
THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING AS THE RAIN ATTEMPTS
TO SATURATE THE LOWER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WINDS QUICKLY
CALM BACK DOWN AND RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WITHIN THE
RAIN BAND.
THE REAL COLD FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL ENTER THE AREA BY 12Z. BY
LATE MORNING, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTING 25-30 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE. THE 00Z HREF INDICATES A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF 25 MPH GUSTS WITH VERY LOW CHANCES OF 30 MPH OR
MORE. ALONG WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE FALLING, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL
FEEL MUCH COOLER BY THE END OF THE DAY THAN IT WILL TO START THE
DAY. THE HREF INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE WIND
CHILLS EARLY THURSDAY AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 DEGREES. ONLY
THE BOOTHEEL AND PURCHASE AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10 DEGREES.
IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S UPPER TROUGH, WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE ECENS AND GEFS INDICATE A 50% OR
GREATER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE TRI STATE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE
IS 80% OR GREATER NEAR THE WHITE RIVER, OR NORTH OF I-64. THE
NBM INDICATES THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW
FREEZING AND WARMING THROUGH SUNRISE, SO EVEN WITH A FEW TENTHS
OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS AT
THIS TIME.
WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE QUAD STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY,
MUCH OF THE REGION IS LIKELY TO SEE A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.
THE ENSEMBLES INDICATE THERE IS A 50% OR BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THIS PERIOD. WITH THE COLD
AIR EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE, WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS.
AS FOR THE COLD AIR THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND, THERE IS A 90%
CHANCE THAT THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ENSEMBLES
INDICATE THAT EVEN SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
HAVE 50% OR BETTER CHANCE OF STAYING BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE WIND CHILL FORECAST HAS COME UP A BIT, WITH
SOMEWHAT WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED. THE COLDEST CHILLS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW ZERO IN THE PERRYVILLE MO TO MT VERNON IL
AREAS SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN IN THE SOUTH WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NO MORE THAN 5 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO. MONDAY MORNING WIND
CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST TO AROUND 10
IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING, TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND
WARMER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE ENTIRE REGION
SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
A COLD FRONT IS WORKING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE OUTLOOK ON CEILINGS IS
IMPROVING, BUT SOME MVFR REMAINS POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TOMORROW AT 20 TO 25 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...JGG
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