499
FXUS63 KPAH 160453
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1053 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES (30-60% CHANCE) IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS,
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY, WITH A 50-80% CHANCE
OF A TENTH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 64.
- TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT, REACHING NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK AROUND SUNRISE, AND NEAR 40 DEGREES BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.
- AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT, GIVING AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LOW
CHANCES (20-40%) OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING.
- VERY COLD AIR AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL
READINGS FROM NEAR ZERO TO AROUND 10 DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT WILL
BRING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW, PRIMARILY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM
FRIDAY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. THE HREF INDICATE A 50-80% CHANCE OF AT
LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS, TO MCLEANSBORO TO
UNIONTOWN KENTUCKY TO OWENSBORO, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. LESSER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REST OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST KENTUCKY IN THE FORM OF
FLURRIES. WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT TOWARD
THE FREEZING MARK BY DAYBREAK, AND THEN WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
40S, ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT,
USHERING IN VERY COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND, AND LOW CHANCES
(20-40%) OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD SEE A DUSTING, BUT
MOSTLY FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE
FREEZING. FRIDAY NIGHT WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S, SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES,
AND SUNDAY NIGHT FROM AROUND ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
SOUTH. OUT COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM 7 TO 12 DEGREES, BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO
CALM.
WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY, PROVIDING A
WARMING TREND INTO WEDNESDAY TO NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
CHANCES (20-30%) OF LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY, WHICH WOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR LIGHT SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TIMING OVERALL IS STILL IN QUESTION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
FLURRIES AND BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE REMAINS A 30% CHANCE OF LIGHT COATINGS
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AS AMPLE DRY AIR IS PRESENT IN THE
COLUMN. CIGS LIKELY REMAIN VFR UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN
THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS. KEPT VFR CIGS AT
KPAH/KCGI AS THE PROBABILITIES ARE ONLY 20-30% ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. RETURNING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. WINDS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE A BIT GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...DW
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