846
FXUS63 KPAH 160909
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
309 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS (20-30% CHANCE) WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A 10-20% CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
SATURDAY. THE STRONGER SHOWERS COULD BRING AN ISOLATED DUSTING
ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND IN GRASSY AREAS, BUT SLICK ROADS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
- COLD AIR WILL COME IN TWO SURGES. THE FIRST WILL COME LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, AND THE SECOND, STRONGER SURGE WILL COME
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A GREATER THAN 90% CHANCE
OF WIND CHILLS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE QUAD
STATE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS HAVE A 30-50% CHANCE OF OCCURRING ALONG
THE I-64 CORRIDOR MONDAY MORNING, AND A 20-30% CHANCE TUESDAY
MORNING. THE ENTIRE REGION HAS A NEAR CERTAINTY OF SEEING WIND
CHILLS BELOW 15 DEGREES EACH MORNING FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IS WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE LONG GONE BY
DAYBREAK. THERE COULD BE SOME SIGN OF IT ON ELEVATED SURFACES,
BUT OTHERWISE THIS WAS A NON-EVENT FOR THE QUAD STATE. SOUTH
WINDS HAVE KICKED IN OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED UP TO FREEZING OR ABOVE. THE SOUTH
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD REACH THE TRI
STATE BY DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB UP TO NORMAL LEVELS IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON, AND A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE QUAD STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF IT, A BAND
OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE PENNYRILE
OF WEST KENTUCKY. THERE IS 30-40% CHANCE OF THE FT CAMPBELL AND
ELKTON AREAS RECEIVING 0.10" OF RAINFALL, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
FARTHER NORTH.
AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT REACHES SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON,
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER, AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER IN THE EVENING, SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AT ANY ONE
LOCATION IS ONLY 20-30%, AS MANY AREAS WILL STAY DRY, BUT WHERE
SHOWERS HIT, A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW COULD PRODUCE A QUICK
DUSTING. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE ISOLATED
SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE QUAD STATE.
AFTER TODAY'S WARMTH, THE GROUND WILL LIKELY BE TOO WARM FOR
ROADS TO BECOME SLICK. THE BIGGER TRAVEL CONCERN MAY BE A SUDDEN
REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY WITHIN THE SHOWERS.
BEYOND SATURDAY, THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES END AND THE FOCUS
BECOMES THE COLD AIR. THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN TWO MAIN SURGES,
ONE SATURDAY AND THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ONE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE 00Z ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT SUB-FREEZING WIND CHILLS
ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PROBABILITY OF SUB-ZERO
WIND CHILLS IS VIRTUALLY ZERO UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, WHEN IT CLIMBS TO 30-50% ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-64. SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS HAVE ONLY A 20-30% CHANCE OVER THE
SAME AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND IS QUITE MURKY AT THIS
TIME. WHILE IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL WARM UP SOME WEDNESDAY, THE
NBM MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE IN ADVERTISING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST TREND IN GUIDANCE BRINGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE QUAD STATE LATER WEDNESDAY, AND THEN ANOTHER MUCH
STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ANY HOPE OF MAKING
A QUICK RECOVERY FROM THE UPCOMING COLD SPELL MAY BE FLEETING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
FLURRIES AND BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE REMAINS A 30% CHANCE OF LIGHT COATINGS
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AS AMPLE DRY AIR IS PRESENT IN THE
COLUMN. CIGS LIKELY REMAIN VFR UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN
THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS. KEPT VFR CIGS AT
KPAH/KCGI AS THE PROBABILITIES ARE ONLY 20-30% ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. RETURNING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. WINDS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE A BIT GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DW
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