597
FXUS63 KPAH 162313
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
513 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING, PATCHY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES (20-25%
CHANCES) ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL BUT FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES (15-20% CHANCES) ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY WEST KENTUCKY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED DUSTING
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES, BUT ROAD
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- A SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING
INTO SATURDAY, WITH A SECOND EVEN COLDER SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A GREATER THAN 90% CHANCE OF WIND CHILLS
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA HAS A GREATER THAN 90% CHANCES
OF WINDS CHILLS REMAINING BELOW 20 DEGREE FROM LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,
PRODUCING PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES (30-50%) EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
INDIANA, WEST KENTUCKY AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS WITH THIS
FRONT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (15-25%) WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL BUT
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY LATE EVENING, AND AS
COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. A
FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MAINLY IN WEST
KENTUCKY. OVERALL, ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT A FEW
ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING WITH ANY BRIEFLY
HEAVIER PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH NO PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THESE FRONTS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TEENS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
BE APPROACHING OUR REGION SUNDAY, AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THE DAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, AND LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES, WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
64 HAVE A 40-60% CHANCE OF WIND CHILL READINGS JUST BELOW ZERO
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST PERIOD
TEMPERATURE-WISE WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES. LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS JUST
A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY, RESULTING IN A
WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. MODELS CURRENTLY BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. THE LATEST MODEL BLEND PRODUCES PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON INTO FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH TIMING
AND TEMPERATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS WEST KY AND SOUTHWEST IN. HOWEVER, SOME -SN
OR FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. CIGS WILL PRIMARILY BE
VFR BUT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST KY THIS
EVENING, WHICH SHOULD PRIMARILY BE SOUTHEAST OF TERMINALS BY
01-02Z. WINDS WILL TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INCREASE HEADING INTO LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN THE 18-22 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...SP
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