579
FXUS63 KPAH 171106
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
506 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK MOVING BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE (15-20%
CHANCE) ACROSS THE QUAD STATE TODAY. A QUICK DUSTING TO A HALF
INCH IS POSSIBLE; HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD ROAD IMPACTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.
- A SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
TODAY, WITH A SECOND EVEN COLDER SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE IS A GREATER THAN 90% CHANCE OF WIND CHILL
VALUES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA HAS A GREATER THAN 90% CHANCE OF
WINDS CHILLS REMAINING BELOW 20 DEGREE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY) FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/FEATURES WILL DETERMINE IF AND WHERE TRAVEL IMPACTS
MAY OCCUR, BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THAT TIME PERIOD FOR
NOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
WINTER TIME IS MOVING BACK IN FULL FORCE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST! A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COLDER TODAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
STAYING BELOW FREEZING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY, THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING; HOWEVER, THE WILL
BE ENOUGH FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO TOUCH OFF A BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS. IN FACT, THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SNOW SQUALLS TO NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER DOES DECREASE AS THE
FGEN FORCING DIMINISHES, BUT IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT THE BAND
COULD PRODUCE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STILL NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SNOWFALL TOTALS (ABOUT A 15% CHANCE OF SEEING GREATER
THAN 0.2 INCHES), BUT ENOUGH TO BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT
IN A DUSTING.
BROAD TROUGHING WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND RE-ENFORCING
THE COLDER AIR THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WHICH WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD, SO NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS. THE NEXT WILL BE
ROUGHLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH EVEN LEST MOISTURE,
SO JUST LEFT THAT PERIOD DRY FOR NOW. OUTSIDE OF THOSE SMALL CHANCES
FOR FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE
COLD AIR IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON SUNDAY AND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING (IN THE 20S)
FOR MONDAY BEFORE MODERATING A BIT ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE QUITE
COLD, DROPPING INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT AND LOW TEENS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIND
CHILL READINGS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING!! IN FACT THERE IS ABOUT A 60-80% CHANCE OF
SEEING SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILL VALUES EACH NIGHT AND MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT ONLY INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US, ALLOWING MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD INTO THE QUAD STATE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF OVERLAP OF COLDER
AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW. THE EXACT DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE
IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT IT IS WORTH KEEPING AN
EYE ON IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
MID CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES TODAY WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHEAST MO AND
THIS AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE. MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM ANY
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES, BUT A VERY BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTION
IS POSSIBLE. THE PROBABILITY OF A SNOW SHOWER IMPACTING ANY OF
THE TAF SITES IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THIS ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT UNDER CLEARING SKY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC
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