060
FXUS63 KPAH 181049
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
449 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED (90-100% CHANCE) TO REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING TODAY AND MONDAY BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING FOR TUESDAY.
- VERY COLD WIND CHILL READING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR
ZERO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IN FACT, THERE IS
ABOUT A 70- 90% CHANCE THAT WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO -5
DEGREES (WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA) OR LOWER ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE OZARK COUNTIES
TODAY AND POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY.
- MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WARMER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND; HOWEVER, IT DOES LOOK UNSETTLED AND THERE IS
STILL A POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY MIX. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON PRECIPITATION TYPES AND PLACEMENT AT THIS TIME, BUT IT IS
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
BROAD TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND RE-ENFORCING THE
COLDER AIR THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
BRUSH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. STILL
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR THAT TIME PERIOD, SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE (EVEN FARTHER NORTH) WILL
BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH EVEN LESS MOISTURE, SO
KEPT THAT PERIOD DRY. OUTSIDE OF THOSE SMALL CHANCES FOR FLURRIES OR
VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE COLD AIR IN
PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING TODAY
AND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING (IN THE 20S) FOR MONDAY BEFORE
MODERATING A BIT ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD, DROPPING INTO
THE TEENS TONIGHT AND LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL DROP INTO THE
LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING!! IN FACT THERE
IS ABOUT A 70-90% CHANCE OF SEEING WIND CHILL READINGS DROP TO -5F
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THAT WOULD BE RIGHT AT COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA, SO
IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT ONE WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE NEXT UPDATE
LATER TODAY.
VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE, CONTINUED DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER AND NEAR THE OZARK COUNTIES IN SEMO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES TRENDS CONTINUE TO WARM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK,
INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
FLATTENS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US, ALLOWING MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE QUAD
STATE, SETTING THE STAGE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE WARMER TREND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION LARGELY AS RAIN, BUT THAT COULD CHANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND, DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL
FEATURES. AT THIS POINT, THERE IS NO GREAT CONTINUITY IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE FROM MODEL TO MODEL OR RUN TO RUN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HAVE A HUGE SPREAD AMONG THE MEMBERS AND EVEN THE AI
GUIDANCE HAS AROUND A 20 DEGREE SPREAD IN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND. ALOFT THERE IS ALSO A VERY
LARGE SPREAD FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL, JUST SHOWING HOW LOW THE
CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME! THE EXACT DETAILS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
BUT IT IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS TOWARD
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 447 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
SOME MID CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH SOME FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW
SHOWER. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN IMPACTS ON THE TAF SITES WITH THIS
ISSUANCE WILL BE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KTS OR SO
THIS AFTERNOON.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page