381
FXUS63 KPAH 181816
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1216 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FRIGID START TO NEW WEEK WITH REINFORCING COLD BLAST KEEPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING UNTIL TUESDAY. WIND CHILLS IN
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH, PERHAPS NEGATIVE DIGITS FAR NORTH, FLIRTS
WITH HEADLINE CRITERIA.
- THE DRY/COLD AIR MASS WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE DANGER AS RH'S
PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND 30S PERCENTILE THRU TUESDAY.
- A MID WEEK RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD BLAST, CARRYING A RETURN TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU THE WEEK'S END AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
HIGH AMPLITUDE EASTERN CONUS TROFFING DOMINATES THE FORECAST.
THE RESULT IS OUR EXISTING RETURN TO WINTER COLD THAT NEARS
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING UNTIL TUESDAY. WIND CHILLS TONIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTH
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, AND MAY TOUCH ZERO OR PERHAPS THE
NEGATIVE DIGITS BRIEFLY IN THE FAR NORTH, FLIRTING WITH HEADLINE
CRITERIA IN THE ROW OF COUNTIES NORTH OF I-64, IN SOUTHERN
IL/SOUTHWEST IN; COLLABORATIVE CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE TO MESSAGE
THAT W/O HEADLINE, BUT EITHER WAY, THE COLD IS THE HIGHLIGHT.
A BRIEF RETURN TO CLIMATOLOGICALLY MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OCCURS WEDNESDAY, JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT BLAST OF POLAR AIR. IT
RETURNS SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO WHICH WE NOW ARE EXPERIENCING,
TO CARRY THROUGH THE WEEK'S END AND BEYOND, AS BOTH THE 6-10 AND
8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS SUGGEST NO SOON END TO THE DRIVING UPPER WAVE
PATTERN'S PREDOMINANT INFLUX TRAJECTORY OF POLAR AIR. NEXT PCPN
CHANCES WITH THE WEEK ENDING BLAST ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE, SO
IT'S TOO EARLY/TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO PINPOINT ANY SUBSEQUENT
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM ANY SUCH CHANCES, IF THEY EVEN OCCUR.
THE MAIN THEME AT THIS POINT CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD IMPACTS,
WHETHER HEADLINE REACHING OR JUST CLOSE, BUT WE DO NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON IT, AS THE NBM CURRENTLY SUGGESTS LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.
THE BREADTH OF THE COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO PLUMMET
DAILY RH VALUES INTO THE 20S AND 30S PERCENTILE, HEIGHTENING
FIRE DANGER DURING A TIME OF D0/D1 DROUGHT THAT ENCOMPASSES THE
BROADER REACHES OF OUR CWA; PARTS OF THE OZARKS ARE EVEN
REACHING INTO THE D2 DROUGHT CONDITION, AND WITH MINIMAL PCPN ON
THE NEAR TERM HORIZON, THESE CONDITIONS WILL ONLY PERSIST AND
MAY WELL EXPAND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST
SCT-BKN LOWERING MID LEVEL BASES BUT REMAINING VFR WITH SW
WINDS/GUSTS STIFFENING UP SOME TODAY. DRY/COLD AIR ADVECTION ON
A REINFORCING COLD BLAST TONIGHT LOOKS TO SCOURS MOST OF THE
COLUMN, BUT THERE IS A HINT IN SOME MODELING THAT SIGNALS
LOWER, EVEN PERHAPS RESTRICTED BASES, MAY INTRODUCE SCT-BKN
INTERVALS AT TIMES, ESP IN THE NORTH, BEFORE COMPLETELY
SCOURING. WINDS SHIFT TO W-NW OVERNIGHT INTO THE PLANNING PHASE
HOURS TMRW MORNING, PICKING UP MORE ROUTINE GUSTS AGAIN THEN.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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