477
FXUS63 KPAH 020446
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1046 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW CHANCES REMAIN STEADY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT (40-50%). SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN
MINIMAL.
- OUR BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH AN 80-100% CHANCE OF HIGHS REACHING ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS EVEN A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE AT
SOME AREAS OF WEST KY AND SOUTHEAST MO REACHING 40 DEGREES.
- LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP IS FORECAST TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVES IN. TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO SEE PRECIP FALLING AS
LIQUID. COLD RESIDUAL SURFACES MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED TRAVEL
ISSUES, BUT TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING TOMORROW MAY WARM
SURFACES ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD ACCRETION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
A SMALL POCKET OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM-AIR ADVECTION IS
PRODUCING RADAR RETURNS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA. THE FEATURE IS MOVING FASTER THAN
MODELED, BUT SO FAR OBS NEAR ST. LOUIS SHOW NOTHING REACHING THE
GROUND. WILL ADJUST POP TIMING A LITTLE EARLIER FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS BUT KEEP THE GENERAL IDEA OF AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FROM ABOUT PERRYVILLE, MO TO EVANSVILLE AND POINTS NORTH. PEAK
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NEW FORECAST ARE 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES SO WE
AREN'T TALKING ABOUT MUCH.
TOMORROW THE PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE IS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BUILDING RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS SHOULD BRING SOME SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND HELP GET
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE.
TUESDAY A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A BROAD
BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER TROUGH. THIS GENERATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF
PRECIP, WITH THE BEST LIFT AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA. THERE BOTH WET BULB AND ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE PRECIP
STARTS. FROM ABOUT MARION, IL TO MADISONVILLE, KY AND NORTH THE
THERMAL PROFILES ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN BUT THE
AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT. I'M ALSO A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WHERE THE AIR TEMPERATURE IS ABOVE FREEZING BUT
THE SURFACES REMAIN SUB-32. SURFACES MAY WARM UP FAST ENOUGH
WITH TOMORROW'S INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES BUT WE WILL KEEP AN EYE
TO IT. BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM WE HAVE ONE MORE DAY WITH MAX
TEMPS FORECAST BELOW FREEZING BUT THIS INCOMING AIRMASS WAS
WARMER AT THE ORIGIN POINT IN CANADA THAN THE LAST SEVERAL HAVE
BEEN. THE OUTLOOK IS FOR US TO MODERATE A BIT WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF SEEING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IS
ONLY 20%.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A 40% CHANCE OF SOME VSBY
REDUCTIONS AT KCGI MONDAY MORNING. MAINTAINED MVFR MENTION DUE
TO A SHALLOW INVERSION THAT DEVELOPS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS LOWER VSBYS, BUT NOT CONFIDENT DUE TO THE DRY AIR.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 5 KTS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DW
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