463
FXUS63 KPAH 020756
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
156 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OUR BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, WITH HIGHS REACHING ABOVE FREEZING. THERE IS EVEN A
50-80% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES HITTING 40 ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MO AND WEST KY.
- A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN, SNOW, AND FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY SORT OF IMPACTS
REMAINS LOW. COLD RESIDUAL SURFACES MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED
TRAVEL ISSUES, BUT TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING TODAY MAY WARM
SURFACES ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD ACCRETION.
- WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL PRIMARILY BE BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, IT WON'T BE AS COLD AS WHAT WE'VE
EXPERIENCED LATELY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 40S AND NORMAL
LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH SITUATED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE QUAD STATE
REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST IN,
BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO OUR EAST SHORTLY. IF THE CLOUD COVER
ENDS UP LINGERING ALL NIGHT THEN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL MUCH, AND WE MAY REMAIN IN THE LOW 20S IN MOST AREAS
(PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER). LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY TO HELP
BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY EVEN REACH 40 IN PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST MO AND WEST KY. CERTAINLY SHOULD HELP KICK START
THE MELTING OF OUR SNOWPACK.
OUR MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN THIS WEEK CONTINUES TO BE THE LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY. WE HAVE TWO PIECES OF
ENERGY THAT WILL ATTEMPT TO PHASE ACROSS OUR AREA, OR POSSIBLY TO
OUR EAST. ONE IS COMING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE OTHER IS
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. DESPITE BOTH BEING ON LAND NOW, MODEL GUIDANCE
IS STILL STRUGGLING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT CROSSES
OUR REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 30-36 HOURS. ONE POSSIBLE SOLUTION IS FOR
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO HAPPEN WITH NO MEASURABLE QPF ANYWHERE IN THE
CWA, AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND RAP. FOR NOW THIS IS A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER SOLUTION, BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF IT PANNED OUT.
ANOTHER SOLUTION IS FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE MORNING,
BUT WITH THE BULK OF ANY TANGIBLE QPF TO BE CONFINED TO WEST KY AND
SOUTHWEST IN (AS THE GFS SUGGESTS). MEANWHILE, THE NAM SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A WIDESPREAD TENTH OR TWO OF LIQUID EAST OF
THE MS RIVER. FOR NOW A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH SEEMS MOST LIKELY.
WHATEVER PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP BEFORE 10-11 AM TUESDAY MORNING
COULD BE A BIT CONCERNING IN THAT P-TYPE MAY BE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
HREF PROBABILITIES OF A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE (>=0.01") ARE ROUGHLY 20-
30% IN SPLOTCHY AREAS OF THE CWA. THEREAFTER, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS LEADING TO THE P-TYPE BEING
EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. THE THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS THE PRIMARY AXIS
OF SNOW IS CONFINED TO THE WABASH VALLEY OF SOUTHERN IL AND
SOUTHWEST IN ALONG WITH NEIGHBORING AREAS OF NORTHWEST KY. THIS IS
THE REGION THE HREF IS PINGING AT ROUGHLY A 40-50% CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE SNOW (0.1" OR GREATER). THE HIGHEST QPF AXIS LIKELY WILL
RESIDE SOUTH OF THIS THOUGH, ACROSS WEST KY, WHERE THERE IS A 40-50%
CHANCE FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID. SO THE SNOW THAT DOES FALL
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT, FALL DURING THE DAYTIME, AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPS PRIMARILY A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING. LIKELY WOULDN'T BE MUCH OF
AN IMPACT FROM A DUSTING TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH. THE GREATEST
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY RESIDE IN ANY LIGHT ICING
OCCURRING TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN STILL.
AFTER TUESDAY'S SYSTEM, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS PUTTING US IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL PRIMARILY BE BELOW NORMAL,
EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S ARE EXPECTED AND
EVEN AN INCREASING CHANCE AT EXCEEDING 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH
(PARTICULARLY SOUTHEAST MO). WHILE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND LOOK DRY, NORTHWEST FLOW IS NOTORIOUS FOR THESE VERY
LIGHT QPF EVENTS THAT COULD SUDDENLY SHOW UP.
GLANCING FURTHER OUT, THERE IS A GROWING SIGNAL IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A FLATTER UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OR EVEN RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD
LIKELY LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FINALLY, AND POSSIBLY FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD. NBM HAS HIGHS IN THE 50S DURING THE FEB 9-12
PERIOD, AND THERE ARE HINTS IN DETERMINISTIC MODELS THAT SUGGEST
SEVERAL DAYS ABOVE 60 MAY OCCUR. SO FOR THOSE TIRED OF THE PROLONGED
COLD WE HAVE ENDURED, HOPE APPEARS TO BE ON THE HORIZON!
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF SEEING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IS
ONLY 20%.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A 40% CHANCE OF SOME VSBY
REDUCTIONS AT KCGI MONDAY MORNING. MAINTAINED MVFR MENTION DUE
TO A SHALLOW INVERSION THAT DEVELOPS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS LOWER VSBYS, BUT NOT CONFIDENT DUE TO THE DRY AIR.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 5 KTS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...DW
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