518
FXUS63 KPAH 031830
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1230 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT IS PARKED ROUGHLY BISECTING THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAY DOT THE LANDSCAPE BUT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AND THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH READINGS LIKELY TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL. NORMAL HIGHS ARE
IN THE MID 40S AND NORMAL LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S.
- THERE IS AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK, WITH LATEST TRENDS SUGGESTING AT
LEAST A 50% CHANCE AT TEMPERATURES REACHING 60 DEGREES BY FEB
11-12!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT ABOUT 1017 MB IS SLOWLY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR DOWN LOW SEEMS TO BE
WINNING THE LOW CLOUDS/RAIN BATTLE WITH SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA, AND MORE SHOWERY LOOKING
FEATURES OVER TENNESSEE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE MOSTLY DRY
HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO THE POINT THAT ACTUAL
SURFACE TEMPS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROZEN PRECIP
IMPACTS EVEN IF THINGS END UP HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED. THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN TENNESSEE LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP OVER THE AREA AS IT MOVES OVER PARTS OF WEST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO EXCEED FREEZING TOMORROW AND ONLY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE ON THURSDAY. AS HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH HIGHS WORKING INTO THE LOWER
50S. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCES FOR A SURFACE RIDGE TO SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST US
EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT PUTS US IN STRONGER RETURN FLOW AND HIGHS
MIGHT WORK INTO THE UPPER 50S OR 60S IN SUCH A PATTERN TOWARDS
THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
CONTINUED A TREND OF IMPROVED CEILINGS/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. SOME RISK FOR PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN
THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE PROBABILITY APPEARS TO BE HIGHER FOR
THINGS TO STAY VFR TIL AT LEAST THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS
APPEAR MORE LIKELY FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING AGAIN
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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