560
FXUS63 KPAH 041643
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1043 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AND AFTER A
BRIEF WARM-UP FRIDAY IT WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- THERE IS AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD (70-90%
CHANCE) OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S MOST DAYS, AND EVEN A
40-60% CHANCE AT HIGHS REACHING 60 DEGREES SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
BROAD TOUGHING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, AND RESULT IN PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WE CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW OCCURRING AT SOME POINT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. MOST GUIDANCE HAS
THURSDAY DRY, BUT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW
PIVOTING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
VORT ENERGY SINKING SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION IS ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
WAVE TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF US, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT THE ECMWF BEING
RIGHT. THEN ANOTHER WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST
OF OUR CWA AND THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION IS FOR A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
FOR US, BUT AGAIN WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WE ENDED UP WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN. TEMPS WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT ALL LIQUID WITH THIS WAVE
GIVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
500MB HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE WEEKEND. SO AFTER A CHILLY
DAY ON SATURDAY (DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IN PLACE), WE
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO MORE OF
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AGAIN. NBM HAS A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE AT
TEMPERATURES REACHING 50 ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO, WESTERN KY, AND FAR
SOUTHERN IL ON SUNDAY, AND EVEN A 40-50% CHANCE AT HIGHS REACHING 60
IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS.
NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LIKELY. THE QUESTION IS HOW WARM WILL WE GET AND HOW MANY FRONTAL
PASSAGES WILL WE SEE THAT RESULT IN A COUPLE OF COOLER DAYS
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE WARMER DAYS. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE HAS A
ROUGHLY A 70-90% AT TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 50 DEGREES FEB 9-12 AND A
40-60% CHANCE FOR HIGHS REACHING 60 THE 10TH THROUGH 12TH. PROBABLY
WILL SEE AT LEAST ONE OR TWO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK,
BUT MODELS VARY ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT SO FOR NOW WE JUST HAVE SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN PLACE FOR TUES/WED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT OWB/EVV THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 2500FT. THE REMAINING TAF
SITES COULD SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...KC
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