237
FXUS63 KPAH 051737
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1137 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHILLY TEMPS TODAY, WARMER
TOMORROW, THEN CHILLY AGAIN SATURDAY.
- PATTERN SHIFT SUNDAY BRINGS A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEK. NBM SHOWS A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE FOR HIGHS OVER 50
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY...BY TUESDAY A LITTLE OVER
HALF THE CWA HAS A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE OF SEEING 60+!
- THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY AID SNOWMELT PROCESSES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT A LITTLE LONGER WHICH WILL KEEP US
ON THE COOLER SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY).
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A QUICK SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH
THE EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES (LESS
THAN 20% CHANCE), OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY WE WARM UP BRIEFLY WITH SEMO AND THE KY PURCHASE REGION
SEEING A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE FOR HIGHS OVER 50 DEGREES. THEN
ANOTHER QUICK WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH
IT. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND NEAR 40 IN PARTS OF SEMO.
SUNDAY BRINGS A PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT AS FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED
AND THEN RIDGING TAKES OVER BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND SUNDAY WITH MOST OF WEST KY AND SEMO SEEING A GREATER THAN
50% CHANCE FOR HIGHS OVER 50. BY TUESDAY THESE CHANCES EXPAND TO THE
REST OF THE CWA WITH EVERYONE SEEING A GREATER THAN 60% CHANCE FOR
HIGHS OVER 50 AND A LITTLE MORE THAN HALF THE CWA SEEING A GREATER
THAN 50% CHANCE FOR HIGHS OVER 60! TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY. TUESDAY EVENING A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH
BRINGING BACK A 20-35% CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN. SMALL CHANCES (25% OR
LESS) FOR RAIN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL IMPACT KEVV AND KOWB THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE FOR SOME
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER KCGI OVERNIGHT, AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT OR CALM. DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW. MVFR
CEILINGS AND NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20KT WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD REACH KMVN AND KEVV AROUND 17Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...DRS
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