753
FXUS63 KPAH 072252
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
452 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN RAIN CHANCES COME BACK
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST REMAINS MESSY AFTER
WEDNESDAY DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCY.
- TUESDAY NIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE MEASURABLE (AT LEAST
0.01") BUT LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
ONE MORE SHOT OF COLD AIR IS SNEAKING ACROSS FROM THE NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS SEMO TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SWIN.
SURFACE RIDGING OVER OH/WV SHOULD WORK WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SHIFT A NORTHERLY WIND TODAY TO A
MORE EASTERLY, BUT PERSISTENT BREEZE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT MINS A LITTLE BIT WARMER, ALTHOUGH WE
SHOULD STILL GO BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT.
THE MAIN ELEMENT OF INTEREST IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IS A PRETTY
MARKED WARMUP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT CULMINATES IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND POSITION OF THE LIFT
LOOKS TO PRECLUDE ANY SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND THE CURRENT
MAXIMA OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE PROGGED ON ALL GUIDANCE TO BE TO OUR
SOUTH OVER WEST TENNESSEE.
A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETS UP OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK KEEPING
THINGS DRY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH THE SPECIFICS REMAIN
A LITTLE MUDDY AS THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED JET PATTERN PROVIDES
SEVERAL DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN GUIDANCE, BUT MOST ALL SOLUTIONS
STILL LOOK FAIRLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE AND BENIGN AS
FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 452 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT SHIFT SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY BETWEEN 7-11
KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DW
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