068
FXUS63 KPAH 081107
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
507 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN RAIN CHANCES COME BACK TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST IS MESSY AFTER WEDNESDAY DUE TO MODEL
DISCREPANCY.
- TUESDAY NIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE MEASURABLE (AT LEAST
0.01") BUT LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
KICKING OFF A WARMING TREND TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. CHANCES OF SEEING 50 TODAY
HAVE COME DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH THE NBM DETERMINISTIC BEING RIGHT ABOUT
THE 50TH PERCENTILE NOW. WESTERN SEMO HAS ABOUT A 60-80% CHANCE OF
SEEING 50 TODAY AND THE KY PURCHASE REGION HAS A 50-70% CHANCE OF
SEEING 50 TODAY. TOMORROW LOOKS BETTER THOUGH FOR EVERYWHERE BUT THE
EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE WHICH ONLY HAS A 20-40% CHANCE OF SEEING 50
TOMORROW. TUESDAY HOWEVER, 50 IS NEARLY A CERTAINTY ACROSS THE BOARD
WITH MAJORITY OF THE AREA LOOKING AT A GREATER THAN 60% CHANCE OF
SEEING 60! THE EXCEPTION BEING ONCE AGAIN THE EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE
AREA AS WELL AS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR.
TUESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH AND BRINGS CHANCES (40-65%)
FOR SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MEASURABLE
(AT LEAST 0.01") RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA, BUT
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. RAIN
THEN TAPERS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AFTER WEDNESDAY THE REST OF THE WEEK IS MORE MUDDY DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENTS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH THANKS
TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE
SOME VARIOUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO NARROW DOWN RIGHT NOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BKN HIGH
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL
SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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