523
FXUS63 KPAH 231131
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
531 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE COLD DAY TODAY, AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE. CONTINUED
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
BELOW 30 DEGREES.
- STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY WILL BRING THE HEAT.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE INCREASING. THERE IS A 10-50%
CHANCE OF MORE THAN A HALF INCH MAINLY OVER WEST KENTUCKY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH EAST TODAY, ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE QUAD STATE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE RESULT WILL BE ONE MORE COLD DAY TODAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT ESCAPE THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY, AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI, WIND CHILLS WILL NOT REACH 30 DEGREES.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY AND BECOME GUSTY
ON TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECENS HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING
40 MPH OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE
CONSSHORT WINDS, SUSTAINED AND GUSTS, WERE USED TO BOLSTER THE
NBM WINDS ON TUESDAY.
A FAIRLY LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING WHICH SHOULD
KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM TANKING TUESDAY. THE FORECAST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 25-35% RANGE. IF THE
HUMIDITY TRENDS MUCH LOWER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS COULD FLIRT WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS. OF COURSE, THOSE
AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS,
AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS, A WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY
EVEN IF THE HUMIDITY IS NOT QUITE DOWN TO CRITERIA. ANY FIRES
THAT DEVELOP COULD QUICKLY SPREAD OUT OF CONTROL.
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL, BUT READINGS WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS (LOWER 50S) EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO OR THROUGH THE QUAD STATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY,
SO SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER, BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WPC QPF REMAINS JUST
OVER AN INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST, WITH AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. IN SUPPORT OF THIS SIGNIFICANT QPF, THE
ENSEMBLES HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 150-200% OF NORMAL,
AND THE THUNDER THREAT FROM THE NBM HAS INCREASED. ON THE FLIP
SIDE, THE PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING ONE INCH OR MORE IN THE 00Z
ENSEMBLES IS 10% OR LESS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE MODELS GENERATE
THAT KIND OF QPF BEFORE GETTING TOO EXCITED ABOUT AN INCH OR
MORE RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.
LOOKING AT NEXT WEEKEND, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NEARLY
ZONAL WITH SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW AND RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF THE
DISTURBANCES, IT WOULD SEEM UNLIKELY THAT ANY SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION WOULD DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY, BUT THE
NBM HAS 20-40% POPS SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS PERIOD.
QPF IS GENERALLY DISORGANIZED AND LIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
CEILINGS WILL STRADDLE 3KFT THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING OR
SCATTERING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT WILL DIMINISH SOME THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL SITES BY SUNSET.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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