452
FNUS73 KPAH 231150
FWSPAH
SPOT FORECAST FOR BELL SMITH UNIT 2...USFS SHAWNEE NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
550 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 CST ON FEBRUARY 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
MIXING HEIGHTS UP TO 4000' AGL AND TRANSPORT WINDS FROM THE NORTH
AT 16 TO 23 MPH WILL LEAD TO GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. 20FT WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 8 TO 9 MPH AND THEN
DIMINISH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO
30-35% FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM AND
MIXING WILL CEASE WITH SUNSET. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER TO
AROUND 65%. SOUTHERLY 20FT WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SUSTAINED NEAR
15 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIPS TO
AROUND 30%. GOOD DISPERSION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY,
DESPITE LESSER MIXING.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........17 AT IGNITION...MAX 34.
RH..................56 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WINDS NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH AT
IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH
BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4000 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 16 TO 23 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR /53500 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD
/65100 KNOT-FT/.
TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......MC MC MC PC MCR MCR MCR MCR CLR CLR CLR CLR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............17 17 19 22 24 27 29 32 33 33 34 33
RH..............56 56 54 47 45 40 40 36 34 34 33 34
20 FT WIND DIR..NW N N N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..9 8 9 8 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 3
20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 14 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.7 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N N N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.23 22 22 20 18 20 20 18 18 18 17 16
VRATE KT-FT/1K..54 50 53 49 49 59 65 62 64 63 57 44
VENTRATE CAT....FR FR FR FR FR FR GD GD GD GD FR FR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 20.
RH..................MAX 62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AROUND 7 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (900 KNOT-FT).
TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY COVER.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............29 27 25 23 23 22 21 21 20 20 21 21
RH..............40 46 50 54 54 54 59 59 62 62 59 59
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW W N W SW SW S S
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.9 7 6 5 5 3 3 3 6 6 8 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW N N NW NW NW W W SW SW SW S
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 9 9 6 5 3 3 3 3 6 6 7
VRATE KT-FT/1K..5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 48.
RH..................MIN 31 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 14 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 32 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 29
TO 36 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (87800 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......MCR PC PC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............21 22 26 30 35 39 42 45 47 48 48 47
RH..............59 57 50 44 38 34 33 32 31 33 34 37
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S SW
20 FT WIND SPD..3 5 8 10 12 12 14 15 14 15 15 14
20 FT WIND GUST.13 15 20 23 25 28 29 31 32 32 32 30
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.7 1.3 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.4 1.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 14 20 23 25 28 30 32 35 36 33 29
VRATE KT-FT/1K..5 8 22 36 44 54 64 77 88 88 69 45
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR FR FR GD GD GD GD GD FR
FORECASTER...SPAETH
REQUESTED BY...SHANE CAMPBELL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2603511.0/PAH
.DELDT 02/23/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL SHANE.CAMPBELL@USDA.GOV
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