620
FXUS63 KPAH 231836
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1236 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL CAUSE WIND GUSTS OVER
30 MPH AND A ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH A 50-70% CHANCE PEAKING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THUNDER CHANCES HAVE TRENDED LOWER.
- A MAJOR WARM UP BEGINS ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES REACHING 60
DEGREES BY FRIDAY, WITH 60S EVEN MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
A POTENT 500 MB TROUGH WILL EXIT THE EASTERN CONUS TONIGHT,
ALLOWING FOR A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. WHILE MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY INCREASES ON THE BACKSIDE DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND EPS PROBABILITIES
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF NEARING
40 MPH OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WENT WITH
CONSSHORT AGAIN FOR BOTH SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS THAT HAVE
TRENDED A FEW KTS HIGHER FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
DESPITE THE MIXING ON TUESDAY, A LOW INVERSION AROUND 900 MB WILL
LIMIT HOW MUCH DEWPOINTS ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. COMBINED WITH THICK HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS, THIS YIELDS RH
VALUES AROUND 30-35%, BUT A FEW LOCATIONS LOCALLY MAY REACH 25%
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO
REACH CRITERIA TO SUPPORT RED FLAG HEADLINES, THE ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL STILL MEAN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RISK
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
AFTER A COLD START TO THE MORNING, SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
CAUSE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S
INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. IN FACT, THE PROBABILITY OF
REACHING 60 DEGREES INCREASES TO 60-80% BY FRIDAY WITH 60S EVEN
MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.
DESPITE THE PATTERN TURNING MORE MILD, A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A
50-70% CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS PEAKING DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER, THE 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT LOWER FOR QPF WITH A
40-60% CHANCE OF REACHING A HALF INCH OF RAIN. THUNDER
PROBABILITIES HAVE ALSO TRENDED LOWER ON THE NBM DUE TO THE LACK
OF INSTABILITY. OVERALL, RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS,
WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS PROGGED OVER SEMO IN LOCATIONS THAT NEED
RAIN THE MOST. A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS ON SUNDAY WHEN
THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH; HOWEVER, MOISTURE APPEARS TO
BE MODEST AT BEST WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON, GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. HIGH
CIGS THICKEN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS TURN LIGHT & VARIABLE TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
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