056
FXUS63 KPAH 241120
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
520 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 MPH, WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (25-35%) TO LEAD TO AN
INCREASED RISK FOR WILDFIRE GROWTH AN SPREAD.
- RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A
45-65% CHANCE PEAKING DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AMOUNTS HAVE
TRENDED LOWER.
- A MAJOR WARM UP BEGINS ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS A 65-85% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES REACHING 60
DEGREES BY FRIDAY, WITH 60S EVEN MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
A 1031MB SFC RIDGE IS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WITH A LONG AND
BROAD 160 KT NORTHWESTERLY JET MAXIMA OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA PUSHING DOWN TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS
MAINTAINS THE SURFACE RIDGING TODAY WHILE OPENING UP BROAD LEE
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MUCH
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY, GUSTING UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH.
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT HAVING PENETRATED WELL INTO THE
CARIBBEAN THERE ISN'T MUCH MOISTURE TO BE HAD ON THESE WINDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW TODAY. GIVEN THE ONGOING
DROUGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY APPEARS TO PRESENT AN ELEVATED
RISK FOR WILDFIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS AND
MINIMUM RH FALLING INTO THE 25 TO 34% CATEGORY AREA WIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TOWARDS 50 DEGREES UNDER HIGH CLOUDS.
THE TREND WILL THEN BE FOR MIXED HIGH CLOUDINESS AND RELATIVELY
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS APART FROM TWO WEAK STORM
SYSTEMS/FRONTS. ONE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND ANOTHER
PERHAPS ON SUNDAY. THE BEST FORCING (JET-LEVEL) FOR THE THURSDAY
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED TO OUR SOUTH AND PRECIP AMOUNTS
TRENDED DOWN AGAIN WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE AND BASED ON THE
POSITION OF THE DRIVING TROUGH I WOULDN'T BE SHOCKED TO SEE IT
AND OVERALL POPS TO DECREASE A LITTLE MORE AS WE NEAR THE EVENT.
SIGNAL ALSO CONTINUES FOR WEAKLY FORCED LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A FRONT TRIES TO PUSH BACK THROUGH THE
AREA. ECMWF/GFS AGREEMENT IS REASONABLY GOOD BUT THE RIPPLE IN
THE JET DRIVING THE SYSTEM IS SMALL SO COULD STILL SEE SOME BIG
FLUCTUATIONS. OVERALL I DON'T SEE MUCH RAINFALL THAT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE DEEPENING DROUGHT STATUS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TOMORROW MORNING. SUSTAINED
WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME 15-20 KTS BY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS EXPECTED. LLWS MAY BECOME A CONCERN TOMORROW
EVENING IF MIXING SUBSIDES AND WE LOSE OUR SURFACE GUSTS, AS
2KFT WINDS INCREASE TO 45-50 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH OVERCAST ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE
PRIMARY FLIGHT FACTOR WILL BE WIND WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
PICKING UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING. GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONDITIONS IS FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH WINDS AT 2000 FT
EXPECTED TO BE 45-55 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
OVERALL GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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