831
FXUS63 KPAH 250446
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1046 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 30 TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH
WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25 TO 35% TO
SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RISK.
- A MAJOR WARM UP BEGINS TODAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS TRENDING INTO THE 50S AND 60S. THERE IS A 60-70%
CHANCE PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
REACH 70 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOLLOWS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- INTERVALS OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A 40-60% CHANCE PEAKING DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES ARRIVE BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE GULF
COAST WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ADVECTING IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CONSSHORT CONTINUES TO TICK A FEW KTS HIGHER WITH THE HRRR EVEN
SUPPORTING A STRAY GUST TO 40 MPH. THE EPS KEEPS THIS AT A 20%
CHANCE, BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PROBABILITY OVER A LARGER AREA. FIRE DANGER AND WILDFIRE GROWTH
REMAINS ELEVATED TODAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 25
TO 35%. HOWEVER, INCREASING THICK HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO PREVENT BETTER MIXING WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
MORE MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS TRENDING INTO THE LOWER 60S BY FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S. SATURDAY IS ON TRACK TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH A 60-70% CHANCE
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY REACH 70 DEGREES.
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 8 TO 10C COMBINED WITH A EXTREMELY DRY
COLUMN, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES OVERACHIEVE
A BIT ABOVE WHAT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BY THE NBM.
WITH THAT SAID, THE FIRST OF TWO SYSTEMS ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WHEN INTERVALS OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WEAKER AND DRIER WITH QPF AS THE BETTER
FORCING IS FOCUSED SOUTHEAST OF THE FA WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 130 KT JET MAX AT 250 MB. THERE IS NOW ONLY A 20-40%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING A HALF INCH MAINLY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
KENTUCKY PENNYRILE. FOR MOST OF THE FA, RAINFALL AMOUNTS NOW
RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ON AVERAGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THERE REMAINS A PERSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A BOUNDARY TO SAG
SOUTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES
OF RAINFALL. UNLIKE THE FIRST SYSTEM, THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE
FOR TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE OVER HALF AN INCH THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS THE PRIMARY FLIGHT IMPEDIMENT TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL FAIRLY GUSTY BUT OBSERVATIONS AND
MODELING SHOW WINDS AT 1500-2000 FT STILL RUNNING AT 50 TO 55
KTS. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS
REDUCING THIS SHEAR WITH LIGHTER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AMID VFR CONDITIONS. SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER
MAY BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION RIGHT NOW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...JGG
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