115
FXUS63 KPAH 250602
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1202 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MAJOR WARM UP CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
TRENDING INTO THE 50S AND 60S. THERE IS A 60-70% CHANCE
PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI REACH 70
DEGREES ON SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- INTERVALS OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A 40-60% CHANCE PEAKING DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR LOW.
SCATTERSHOT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
HINT OF A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST WED FEB 26 2026
WE LOSE THE WIND FROM YESTERDAY AN END UP A STEP WARMER TODAY
WITH HIGHS PUSHING 60 DEGREES. THE RAINFALL EVENT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN WITH PRETTY
UNIMPRESSIVE FORCING DRIVEN BY A SLOPPY BROAD TROUGH AND LIMITED
MOISTURE RETURN. WE WARM UP A LITTLE MORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AMID A PATCHWORK OF HIGH CLOUDS.
ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO WORK TOWARDS THE AREA AND THEN STALLS AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. WE HAVE SCATTERSHOT RAIN CHANCES WITH
LITTLE IMPULSES IN THE WAVE AND BOUTS OF STRONGER FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING BUT THERE ARE STILL NO AMOUNTS OR MOMENTS THAT ARE
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE FOR RAINFALL UNTIL PERHAPS MONDAY OR
TUESDAY WHEN A LARGER MORE ROBUST TROUGH STARTS WORKING INTO
THE WESTERN US AND LEADS TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN. DETAILS OF
COURSE YET TO EMERGE BUT THE THEME IN BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS THAT STRONG/BROAD MOISTURE RETURN
FINALLY GETS GOING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AND ITS THE
KIND OF PATTERN AT LEAST SOME SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY RAINFALL
THREATS COULD EMERGE DEPENDING ON HOW IT ALL PLAYS OUT.
OTHERWISE RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WITH AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK IN THE OFFING THROUGH THE NEXT 6 DAYS
OR SO.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS THE PRIMARY FLIGHT IMPEDIMENT TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL FAIRLY GUSTY BUT OBSERVATIONS AND
MODELING SHOW WINDS AT 1500-2000 FT STILL RUNNING AT 50 TO 55
KTS. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS
REDUCING THIS SHEAR WITH LIGHTER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AMID VFR CONDITIONS. SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER
MAY BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION RIGHT NOW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page