523
FXUS63 KPAH 251108
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
508 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MAJOR WARM UP CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
TRENDING INTO THE 50S AND 60S. THERE IS A 60-70% CHANCE
PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI REACH 70
DEGREES ON SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- INTERVALS OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A 40-60% CHANCE PEAKING DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR LOW.
SCATTERSHOT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
HINT OF A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST WED FEB 26 2026
WE LOSE THE WIND FROM YESTERDAY AN END UP A STEP WARMER TODAY
WITH HIGHS PUSHING 60 DEGREES. THE RAINFALL EVENT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN WITH PRETTY
UNIMPRESSIVE FORCING DRIVEN BY A SLOPPY BROAD TROUGH AND LIMITED
MOISTURE RETURN. WE WARM UP A LITTLE MORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AMID A PATCHWORK OF HIGH CLOUDS.
ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO WORK TOWARDS THE AREA AND THEN STALLS AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. WE HAVE SCATTERSHOT RAIN CHANCES WITH
LITTLE IMPULSES IN THE WAVE AND BOUTS OF STRONGER FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING BUT THERE ARE STILL NO AMOUNTS OR MOMENTS THAT ARE
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE FOR RAINFALL UNTIL PERHAPS MONDAY OR
TUESDAY WHEN A LARGER MORE ROBUST TROUGH STARTS WORKING INTO
THE WESTERN US AND LEADS TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN. DETAILS OF
COURSE YET TO EMERGE BUT THE THEME IN BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS THAT STRONG/BROAD MOISTURE RETURN
FINALLY GETS GOING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AND ITS THE
KIND OF PATTERN AT LEAST SOME SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY RAINFALL
THREATS COULD EMERGE DEPENDING ON HOW IT ALL PLAYS OUT.
OTHERWISE RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WITH AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK IN THE OFFING THROUGH THE NEXT 6 DAYS
OR SO.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EASE AT THE SURFACE. WINDS ARE STILL
FAIRLY STRONG JUST OFF THE DECK BUT CURRENTLY APPEAR BELOW
WIND SHEAR CRITERIA AND THAT SHOULD ABATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DAYPART WITH SHOWERS STARTING TO
FORM OVER PARTS OF WESTERN KY AND ADJACENT AREAS THIS EVENING.
LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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