355
FXUS63 KPAH 260317
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
917 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DISTURBANCE PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM 0.05 TO 0.25" FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE LATTER HALF OF
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING A DAILY CHANCE
(40-60%) OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW MIX CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
TONIGHT AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAKLY CYCLONIC H5 SYNOPTIC
FLOW. THIS WILL BRING AREAS LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES (60-90%) ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN KY PENNYRILE. BY THURSDAY MORNING, RAIN WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST, WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.10-0.25" FORECAST
FROM THE MO BOOTHEEL NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF WEST KY. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST, DRY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS GREATLY TO ONLY A TRACE TO AROUND 0.10". OVERALL, ANY
PRECIPITATION IS WELCOME, BUT THESE AMOUNTS WILL NOT MAKE A DENT
ON THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED MILD H5 ZONAL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL YIELD WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, DURING THIS TIME, ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, FORECAST
WINDS AS THEY STAND LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT 5-10 MPH FROM THE SW.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO ARRIVE BEGINNING SUNDAY
AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS WE TRANSITION TO A MORE TROUGH-DOMINATED SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IMPACTING THE REGION.
THE MOST ORGANIZED SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT RAIN, BUT TEMPERATURES
MAY FALL LOW ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 64. HOWEVER, NO ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. CURRENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK AT BIT MORE PROMISING
FOR DROUGHT RELIEF, WITH THE LATEST NBM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING A 60-80% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 0.50" OF TOTAL
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 917 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY
CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH SATURATION OCCURS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE
THE CIGS ARE MAINLY SCT WITH BRIEF BKN INTERVALS.
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES WILL PEAK OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
AT KPAH. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 6-11 KTS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ALL TERMINALS RETURN TO VFR BY MIDDAY
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS TURN LIGHT &
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DW
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