964
FXUS63 KPAH 272245
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
445 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
OZARK FOOTHILLS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER IS LIKELY AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE OZARK
FOOTHILLS.
- THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE (10-20%) OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY MORE
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN (50-80%) SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
- SOME SNOW MAY MIX WITH THE RAIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION OR TRAVEL IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED.
- A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TO MILD AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IS
LIKELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DAILY ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY (50-70%) EACH DAY
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, BRINGING MUCH-NEEDED SOAKING RAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 445 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING VERY
MILD AND SUNNY WEATHER TO THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW DOWN TO 20-35% THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
THE LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE OZARK FOOTHILLS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
IL. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN
IN EFFECT HIGHLIGHTING THIS RISK. SIMILAR CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY IN THE MARK TWAIN NF SECTOR OF THE OZARK FOOTHILLS.
A VERY SUBTLE H5 TROUGH, SURFACE LOW, AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL RACE ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A VERY SMALL (10-20%) CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN TO THE EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE AND POINTS NORTH, BUT
ONLY A TRACE OR A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. THE MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE A BIG SWING
DOWNWARD IN TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY MARCH VALUES,
WHICH WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY'S
TEMPERATURES!
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ALONG IT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN. THE CONCERN OF A FEW DAYS AGO THAT THERMAL
PROFILES THAT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IMPACTFUL SNOW OR
FREEZING RAIN HAS ENDED, AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION LOOK
TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. THERE MAY BE PERIODS WHEN SNOW MIXES
WITH RAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING NORTH OF I-64, BUT AGAIN, NO
ACCUMULATIONS OR TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
AS WE TURN THE PAGE FROM WINTER TO SPRING, A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE COUNTRY. THE PERSISTENT
WESTERN CONUS RIDGING/EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING REGIME THAT
BROUGHT VERY DRY CONDITIONS THIS WINTER WILL FLIP. WITH TROUGHING
SETTING UP OVER THE WEST AND RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST. THIS WILL
MEAN A TRANSITION TO A VERY UNSETTLED/STORMY PATTERN, ESPECIALLY
AFTER MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN WARM WELL
ABOVE NORMAL, TRENDING ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY LATE
NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES NEARING 60
DEGREES.
IT IS ACTUALLY PRETTY DIFFICULT TO SUSS OUT THE SPECIFICS AT
THIS RANGE DUE TO MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT WHAT IS LIKELY
IS THAT THE REGION WILL BE UNDER ACTIVE SW FLOW IN THE MID-
LEVELS, AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ALMOST ON A DAILY BASIS. THIS WILL
BRING A GOOD DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (50-70%)
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AT LEAST. THE BIGGEST
IMPACT WILL BE THE RETURN OF MUCH-NEEDED RAIN, AND THE LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A GOOD CHANCE (60-90%) OF AT LEAST
0.50" OF RAIN DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD, AND A
30-70% OF 1" OF RAIN OR GREATER. THE HIGHEST VALUES AT THIS TIME
LOOK BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MO, SOUTHERN IL, AND
SOUTHWEST IN.
PEEKING AHEAD AT THE 7-10 DAY WINDOW, THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE, AND THERE IS SOME GROWING CONCERN
THAT WITH CONTINUED ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, SOME
FLOODING ISSUES MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY THE CONCERN
OF RIVER FLOODING WITH A SUCH A BROAD AREA THAT COULD SEE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOWMELT. SOME OF THE HEFS EXTENDED
GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO DEPICT LARGE RISES ON SOME OF THE MAIN
STEM RIVERS, BUT SINCE CURRENT LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW, THERE IS A
LARGE BUFFER BEFORE CONCERNS FOR IMPACTFUL FLOODING DEVELOP.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS PATTERN COULD SUPPORT SOME EPISODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER, AND SPC AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE IS
STARTING TO PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE DAY 7-10 WINDOW (MARCH 6-10). AGAIN, THERE IS A LONG WAY TO
GO, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY SEVERE CONVECTION WILL AVOID
OUR REGION COMPLETELY. THE BEST THING TO DO IS STAY UP TO DATE
ON THE FORECAST AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT 4 TO 6 DAYS WHEN THE
PICTURE WILL BECOME A LOT CLEARER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 445 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
GRIDDED TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MOISTENING IN THE
COLUMN FROM HIGH DOWN TO MID LEVEL BASES INCREASING OVER THE
BACK HALF OF THE FORECAST, WITH SOME VFR CIGS POTENTIALLY
BY/THROUGH THE PLANNING PHASE HOURS. WINDS TMRW WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS TODAY, AND WILL HAVE SOME VARIANCE EARLY BEFORE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLIES AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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