790
FXUS63 KPAH 281746
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1146 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OUR FIRST WAVE OF DECENT RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH ROUGHLY A
40-60% CHANCE OF A SWATH OF AT LEAST 0.5". FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY SEE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN HALF
INCH OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LEAD TO NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH THIS WEEK AND BEYOND. THE ACTIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO LAST THROUGH MARCH 11 OR 12. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE
NEXT 12 DAYS MAY EXCEED 4" (CURRENTLY AROUND A 40-60% CHANCE).
HIGHEST AMOUNTS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
- AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A 40-80% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES FOR AT LEAST 8 DAYS FROM THIS TUESDAY
THROUGH MARCH 10TH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
A LOVELY DAY IS OCCURRING TODAY AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING
TOWARDS US FROM KS/OK. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S, AND MAY EVEN REACH THE MID 70S IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MO.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SPREADING EAST ACROSS MISSOURI NOW, AND SOME
OF THESE MAY SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STALLED TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PIVOT EASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. OVERALL
AMOUNTS VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL, WITH THE HIGHEST SWATH POTENTIALLY
RANGING ANYWHERE FROM NEAR 0.5" TO A LITTLE OVER 1". THE GFS AND
GEFS ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH AMOUNTS OF 0.5" TO 1" WHILE THE
ECMWF AND IT'S ENSEMBLE GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 0.5". THE NBM IS
GIVING US ROUGHLY A 40-60% CHANCE OF 0.5", WITH THE MOST LIKELY
CORRIDOR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. WHILE THE THERMAL
PROFILE WILL LARGELY REMAIN TOO WARM FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION, THERE
REMAINS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND WARM ANTECEDENT GROUND
TEMPERATURES, FIND IT HARD TO BELIEVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION AND SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS WILL OCCUR. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
APPEARS TO BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION ON
GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES, AND THIS WOULD LARGELY BE DEPENDENT ON
IF RATES WERE HIGH ENOUGH.
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS SETTING UP THIS WEEK AND BEYOND WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN. AFTER THE
MONDAY SYSTEM, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS BACK NORTH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE WARM SECTOR RETURNING ACROSS OUR
CWA. THIS LARGELY KEEPS PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA, AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY
INTO WEDNESDAY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL TAKE ON AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT MID TO LATE WEEK AS LARGE SCALE
TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OUT WEST AND RIDGING BECOMES CENTERED
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK
AS WELL. WAVES OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY
PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
ENSEMBLES ARE NOW SUGGESTING A 40-60% CHANCE OF TOTAL RAINFALL
REACHING AT LEAST 4" ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION BETWEEN MARCH 1ST AND
12TH. THIS IS QUITE THE PATTERN FLIP AFTER THE MAJORITY OF OUR
REGION ONLY RECEIVED 2-4" OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 90 DAYS!
THE OVERALL PATTERN MAY SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO
TIME, WITH THE FIRST CHANCE AT THIS POSSIBLY OCCURRING NEXT FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES MAY OCCUR FROM MARCH 9-12. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW
TO MID 60S. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF
POTENTIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO DECENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AS WELL, BUT WE ARE STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT CONFIDENCE
IN EXCEEDING A CERTAIN THRESHOLD OF INSTABILITY IS STILL RATHER LOW.
CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR THOUGH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BKN MID CLOUD WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND THEN SWITCH
AROUND TO NNE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20
KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE BY MID-LATE MORNING AS MIXING INCREASES.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
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