329
FXUS63 KPAH 010731
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
131 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 50-85% CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE QUAD STATE
TONIGHT. NORTH OF I-64 COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW MIX IN. LITTLE
TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
- A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT IS IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK TO MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN EXIST WITH A
DECENT SIGNAL FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH A 30-50% CHANCE OF
GREATER THAN 3" THROUGH TUESDAY, MARCH 10TH.
- WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BEING
ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
CHILLIER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY AND MONDAY, THEN A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT IS IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE TODAY AND TOMORROW. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT
BRINGS OVERRUNNING PRECIP NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT HAVE
TRENDED BACK WARMER AGAIN BY 2-3 DEGREES WITH DAY TIME FORECAST RUNS
AND HAVE MAINTAINED WITH THE MOST RECENT RUNS. SO PRECIP SHOULD BE
MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX IN BRIEFLY
NORTH OF I-64. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE WARM
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND SO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL GET, NBM HAS A ROUGHLY 40-70% CHANCE OF A
HALF INCH OR GREATER, THE LREF IS LESS AT AROUND 20-50% OF A HALF
INCH OR GREATER. THE GREATEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVER NORTHERN SEMO
AND WESTERN SOUTHERN IL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
AFTER MONDAY A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE THAT WILL RESULT IN
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AND PUT US BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL
FOCUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDWEEK WITH
BROAD TROUGHING SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING
SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL WAVES LEAVING THE WESTERN
TROF WILL ROLL THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE LREF HAS A 30-50% CHANCE
OF GREATER THAN 3" TOTAL THROUGH THE MORNING OF TUESDAY, MARCH 10TH.
THE CURRENT FORECAST STORM TOTAL (MAINLY FROM WPC) HAS AREAS OF
5" THROUGH SUNDAY, MARCH 8TH. SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES WITH THIS PATTERN AS WELL, PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING INSTABILITY. THERE IS STILL A LOT TO
IRON OUT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN THOUGH, BUT IT'S SOMETHING TO
WATCH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
SATELLITE, RADAR, AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING INTO THE AREA WILL DRAW DOWN VFR CLOUD BASES AND YIELD
VFR CIGS THAT WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS AT TIMES,
ESP NORTH, BUT PROBABLY WON'T OFFER MUCH IN TERMS OF
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS, AND EVEN IF/THEN, ONLY BRIEFLY. THE
BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH, SO EXPECT CONTINUED VFR CIGS TO
RANGE FROM BKN-OVC THRU THE DAY TMRW, AS SURFACE WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT SHIFT TO THE NORTH. SOME GUSTINESS MAY OCCUR AS WELL,
THE OPPOSITE OF RAIN CHANCES, MORE LIKELY SOUTH THAN NORTH.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...
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