721
FXUS63 KPAH 150617
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
117 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
THE MAIN ANTICIPATED HAZARDS.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR GUST
POTENTIAL UP TO 50 MPH OUTSIDE OF STORMS. 35 TO 45 MPH GUSTS
WILL BE COMMONPLACE.
- RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE
ENDING AS MUCH COLDER AIR PLUNGES ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE TO
NO IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, BUT A LIGHT DUSTING OF
SNOWFALL ON GRASSY SURFACES IS POSSIBLE.
- WINTER-LIKE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL START THE NEW WORK WEEK.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MAY REACH RECORD LEVELS IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE NOSE OF LOWER 50S DEW POINTS IS BEGINNING TO WEDGE INTO SEMO
AT THIS WRITING. WE'LL SEE THOSE 50S DEW POINTS EXPAND ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY, IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
IS STILL POISED TO BRING A STRONG-SEVERE STORM THREAT WITH IT.
THE ENHANCED RISK INCLUDES DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES AS THE PRIMARY ANTICIPATED HAZARDS, WITH LARGE HAIL
ALSO POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE THRU RAPIDLY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE STORM TO THE WEST REALLY TIGHTENS UP
TODAY-TONIGHT, AND WINDS RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. SOUTH WINDS
AVERAGING 15-30 MPH WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT GUSTS 35-45 MPH, AND
50 MPH GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. NAEFS E-SAT INDICATES
99TH PERCENTILE WIND FIELDS WITH 3+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE NORM AND 10-30 YEAR RETURN INTERVALS. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST AFTER FROPA TONIGHT.
THE NEW CAMS ALL SYNC ON THE TIMING FOR BEST CONVECTION. 18-21Z
WILL BE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER TIME, AS THE LINE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST
PICTURE IN OUR WEST ABOUT THAT TIME (21Z). IT ESTRAPOLATES WEST-
TO-EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND IS BASICALLY DEPARTING OUR EAST
WITH ITS STRONG-SVR THREAT BY MID-LATE EVENING (03Z). FAVORABLE
SEVERE INGREDIENTS ARE THE CHART TOPPING HELICITY AND SHEAR
VALUES THAT COME WITH IT, WHILE INSTABILITY AND SURFACE DEW
POINTS APPEAR TO LACK OVERALL, OR AT LEAST LACK ON THEIR
INTERFACE WITH THE INCOMING BEST DYNAMICS. THE FORMER WINS OUT
OVER THE LATTER ENOUGH TO NOT PRECLUDE ANY OF OUR ENHANCED RISK
HIGHLIGHTS. IF SEVERE STORMS OCCUR, THEY'LL LIKELY BE QUASI-
LINEAR WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS, WITH LESSER BUT STILL EXISTENT CHANCES FOR LARGE HAIL
WITH STRONGER STORMS.
A SHARP TEMPERATURE FALL BEHIND FROPA WILL CHANGE-OVER ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS FROM LIQUID TO FROZEN PRETTY QUICKLY. HOWEVER,
THE BULK MOISTURE DEPARTS WITH THE FRONT, SO LITTLE MORE THAN
APPEARANCE SNOWFALL UP TO MAYBE A DUSTING ON GRASSY SURFACES IS
EXPECTED. THE 00Z RUN WAS MUCH LESS ROBUST THAN ITS PREDECESSOR
RUN, SO THIS COULD WAFFLE NEXT RUN BUT A NON-IMPACTFUL THEME HAS
GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONGST RUNS DATING BACK SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S FOR HIGHS THE
FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK. THE COLDEST WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT, WHEN RECORD TO NEAR RECORD LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE
EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS THAT MORNING WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING MARCH 17 ARE: EVV-13 (1900), PAH-19 (1941),
CGI-22 (1967), POF-19 (1941), AND MDH-3 (1900).
AFTER WE GET THRU THE WINTER COLD OF THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK, THE WEATHER LOOKS REALLY NICE ON THE BACK HALF. WE GET
OUT OF THE SMALL SHOWERY CHANCES WITH A RETURN TO A WARMER AND
DRIER REGIME. 70S START TO APPEAR THURSDAY, EXPAND EVERYWHERE
FRIDAY, AND 80S MAKE THEIR RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
SOUTH WINDS RAMP UP TODAY AND WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT'S APPROACH/PASSAGE WILL
ULTIMATELY LEAD TO A RETURN OF RESTRICTED CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO ITS
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/STORMS. AFTER FROPA, WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MAY CHANGE-OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW BEFORE ENDING AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /11 AM EDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 AM
CDT /8 AM EDT/ MONDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
KYZ001>022.
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